There is an apparent shift in how Wall Street views the stock market, as retail investors are increasingly doubting the AI rally.
Based on the earnings outlook and tax rate projection from its 2025 interim report, British American Tobacco now resembles an equity bond yielding ~12%. To make it more attractive, I also see significant coupon growth potential in the years to come. My growth rate projection is ~5% annually (vs. 6%+ from consensus) based on its strong ROCE and capital allocation flexibility.
BTI remains attractively valued, despite a recent 80% rally off 2024 lows and a modest pullback. Shares offer a 6.1% dividend yield, supported by strong free cash flow. glo Hilo rollout accelerates, with premium pricing and early data in Japan and Poland. Velo Plus gains momentum in the U.S. nicotine pouch market, with over 17% market share, challenging the market leader ZYN.
British American Tobacco has transitioned from deep value to fair value as a number of catalysts through 2024/2025 ignite the share price. BTI's smokeless portfolio, especially Velo nicotine pouches, is benefiting from global trends, with the nicotine pouch market projected to grow at a 29% CAGR. At current prices, BTI offers a forward dividend yield of 6.3% plus moderate buybacks, but valuation now approaches fair value, supporting a 'hold' rating.
Dividend Growth Outperformance: For over 50 years, dividend growers have delivered market-beating returns with lower volatility. The BTI Example: British American Tobacco went from six years of stagnation to 63% gains in 2025, beating the Mag 7 and Bitcoin—underscoring the power of patience. I've found 11 dividend aristocrats with 70%+ quality scores and 50+% justified 12-month return potential, based on yield, growth, and valuation.
British American Tobacco has delivered stellar returns, but I now see the stock as overbought and ripe for a 10%+ pullback. The current 5.5% yield is no longer attractive compared to lower-risk alternatives like money market funds yielding 4.2%. Valuation looks full given slow revenue growth, high debt, and increased bullish sentiment—suggesting a potential market top.
British American Tobacco's share price continues to rise, with support from its recent interim results. There could be even further upside ahead. H1 2025 results met expectations, with new categories showing increasing revenue and profit contributions, setting up for stronger H2 performance. Despite a slight downward revision in net income estimates, BTI's forward P/E remains attractive versus the consumer staples sector and peers.
British American Tobacco p.l.c.'s share price has surged 46% YTD, outpacing fundamentals and prompting me to trim my position and shift to a Hold rating. Growth in smokeless products remains disappointing, especially compared to Philip Morris, with Vuse sales declining and overall innovation lagging. Debt sustainability has improved significantly, aided by ITC stake sales, and the dividend remains attractive and well-covered at a 54% payout ratio.
Investors love dividend stocks, especially those with high yields, because they provide a substantial income stream and offer significant total return potential.
British American Tobacco p.l.c. remains a value play with a high, growing dividend, backed by strong cash flow but facing U.S. market challenges. Recent positive developments—Canada litigation settlement, menthol ban withdrawal, and progress in modern oral—are turning U.S. headwinds into tailwinds for BTI. Federal action against illegal vapes could restore VUSE's market leadership, offsetting BTI's lag in modern oral and heat-not-burn segments.
With markets at highs, I see potential for a rotation into value and high-yield dividend stocks as investors seek safety. I highlight four dividend stocks I'd hold for ten years purely for their yield, if needed, not for share price appreciation. The stocks are diversified across four industries and yield a combined 5.4%, with an extremely strong likelihood of small and continued dividend increases over the next decade.
I reiterate my buy rating on British American Tobacco despite the recent price surge. I see new catalysts from its most recent trade update to balance out the price surge. The top catalyst is the new category of products, which I expect to drive future growth and margins.