I stick to a "Buy" rating for Japan Tobacco after analyzing its prospects for the short-term and medium-term. JAPAY's 3Q25 adjusted operating profit jumped 30% YoY, thanks to price hikes and higher volumes. The company is anticipating a 24% rise in operating earnings for the full year; it still has plans for additional pricing adjustments.
Japan Tobacco continues to deserve a Buy rating, taking into consideration recent corporate developments. The sale of its non-core pharmaceutical business should lead to a narrowing of the holding company valuation discount and more generous cash distributions. JAPAY is also introducing its latest heated tobacco device and new high-end tobacco stick brand in July this year.
Japan Tobacco offers a high 5% dividend yield, ideal for income-focused investors, despite inconsistent annual dividend growth. The stock has appreciated by 7% annually over five years, with total returns of 12% including dividends. Though no growth is expected this year, future dividend growth is expected as the company aims for high single-digit earnings growth.
I upgrade Japan Tobacco from Hold to Buy, after considering its satisfactory 2024 performance and its positive outlook. JAPAF's 2024 results met expectations with an 8% increase in both its topline and operating income. Price hikes for Camel and WITH brands should boost FY25 earnings, supported by JAPAF's dominant 43% market share in Japan.
Japan Tobacco Inc. (JAPAY) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript