Novo Nordisk A/S NYSE: NVO has declared that its GLP-1 drugs for chronic obesity, under the brands Ozempic and Wegovy, are no longer in short supply. This caused the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to take semaglutide, the active ingredient in both, off the drug shortage list on February 21, 2025.
Novo Nordisk will explore how GLP-1 drugs potentially could help patients struggling with addiction, its head of development Martin Holst Lange told an online press conference on Thursday.
HIMS' steep correction is well warranted, given the expensive valuations and the headwinds from the now available FDA-approved GLP-1 therapies. However, we believe that the end of GLP-1 shortage is a tailwind, allowing its core personalized healthcare portfolio to shine, as observed in the double digits non-GLP-1 revenue growth. The same has been observed in the rich FY2024 performance metrics and the management's FY2025 guidance, as they seek to expand their vertically integrated healthcare offerings.
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s Rezdiffra had a strong launch with $103.3M in Q4 sales and solid liquidity, but GLP-1 competition from Novo and Lilly poses significant future challenges. Madrigal's Phase 3 trial aims to expand Rezdiffra's label to early cirrhosis by 2027, with EMA approval expected in mid-2025. GLP-1s like semaglutide and tirzepatide show promising MASH results, potentially disrupting Rezdiffra's market despite its first-mover advantage.
Global Partners LP Common Units (NYSE:GLP ) Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call February 28, 2025 10:00 AM ET Company Participants Sean Geary - CLO & Secretary Eric Slifka - President & CEO Gregory Hanson - CFO Mark Romaine - COO Conference Call Participants Selman Akyol - Stifel Operator Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Global Partners Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Financial Results Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded.
The GLP-1 weight loss market is a massive one, with some analysts expecting it to be worth around $200 billion by 2031. Hype around weight loss drugs isn't new, but when people are losing more than 20% of their body weight, it creates considerable enthusiasm.
The GLP-1 industry is currently an oligopoly ruled by two pharmaceutical giants, Novo Nordisk A/S NYSE: NVO, maker of semaglutide under the Ozempic and Wegovy name brands, and Eli Lilly & Co. NYSE: LLY, maker of tirzepatide and dual GLP-1/GIP agonist treatment sold under Mounjaro and Zepbound name brands. As compounding facilities cease making compounded versions of their drugs, which are no longer on the FDA drug shortage list, the medical sector oligopoly will likely regain many more users to seal their dominance.
Hims & Hers Health, Inc. reported strong growth, with Q4 sales up $80 million sequentially, yet HIMS stock fell due to GLP-1 business confusion. The online health and wellness platform guided to $2.3 billion in 2025 revenues and $300 million in adjusted EBITDA despite the FDA ending GLP-1 shortages. Hims' non-GLP-1 sales grew 43% to $1.2 billion, showing its business isn't reliant on GLP-1 sales.
I expect price sensitive consumers to flood the market for compounded GLP-1 drugs before the 60-day FDA grace period for semaglutide compounders. HIMS projects $725M in GLP-1 weight loss revenue for 2025, a 3.2x increase from 2024, with a broader weight loss strategy including oral treatments and liraglutide. I believe affordability will drive demand for Hims' weight loss products, as many overweight Americans may struggle to afford Novo Nordisk's expensive GLP-1 treatments.
Hims & Hers Health reported fourth-quarter results on Monday that beat analysts' expectations, but the stock sank in extended trading. The company's margin of
Hims & Hers Health stock dropped 25% after the FDA announced the end of the semaglutide shortage, impacting Hims' weight loss services revenue. Hims plans to launch a generic version of liraglutide, but its efficacy is significantly lower than semaglutide and tirzepatide. Despite the setback, Hims shows strong financial health with 77% Y/Y revenue growth and no long-term debt, warranting a "hold" recommendation.
Novo Nordisk only prices in management's latest year guidance and underestimates the full market potential. Adding 5m GLP-1 patients at slightly lower prices or 21m at LLY price levels both lead to 20%+ upside in the stock. Both diabetes and obesity are blue ocean markets, composed of low GLP-1 usage.