BND: Trump Victory Could Hurt Bonds; Sweep For Either Side Worse
Trump's Polymarket election odds have a 73% R-squared to the 10-year Treasury rate, indicating that a Trump win would lower high-duration bond prices. A Republican sweep of the House and Senate may exacerbate losses by making deficit spending policies more feasible. However, the same can be argued for a Democrat sweep. My long-term view on high-duration Treasury bonds is decidedly bearish, given the bipartisan consensus against fiscal responsibility and pro-inflationary Fed policies.
BND: Bonds Are Giving A New Opportunity
Recommend buying Vanguard Total Bond ETF due to exaggerated market hopes for deeper rate cuts, leading to recent bond underperformance. BND offers broad exposure to the American fixed income market, with over 11,000 bonds and a 0.03% management fee. Historical data shows bonds have returns over 10% during rate-cut cycles, making the Fund an attractive investment opportunity.
2 Low-Cost Vanguard ETFs for Set-and-Forget Investors
Two Vanguard ETFs that could be perfect for hands-off investors looking for solid returns.
Bonds Revival Continues to Gain Momentum
As noted in the Financial Times, investor demand for bonds is translating into record inflows for fixed income ETFs. On that note, it's an ideal time to get core exposure amid the revival of bonds.
Emerging Markets Stocks Tied With U.S. Equities Year To Date
Exclude China and broadly defined EM stocks are posting substantially softer results, based on a set of ETFs through Friday's close. US shares are effectively neck and next with EM so far in 2024.
Recession Or Not, Investors Can Benefit From Core Bonds
As the economy cools down and the U.S. Federal Reserve eases into a more accommodative monetary policy, the prospect of a potential recession could push even more investors to bonds. But recession or not, investors can still reap the benefits of core bond exposure.
BND: Bonds Are Rising Again, But They Face 2 Key Risks
BND's short-term outlook is positive due to lower inflation expectations and a potential end to or reduction in QT activity. Key bond risks include potential oil price spikes from geopolitical tensions and rising corporate credit risk during stock market crashes. In the long term, BND is not ideal due to concerns about US government debt, which makes its debt unpayable without chronically elevated inflation.
BND And AGG: The Best Is Behind Them (Rating Downgrade)
In December 2023, I rated BND and AGG as Strong Buys due to economic slowdown and anticipated Fed rate cuts; both ETFs delivered decent returns. I now downgrade BND and AGG to Hold, as the market overreacted to economic data, pricing in more rate cuts than likely. Despite being slightly overpriced, BND and AGG still offer attractive yields (4.16% and 4.22%) for income-focused investors, with minimal downside risk.
Increased Volatility Brings Back the 60/40 Portfolio
Before the pandemic hit in 2020, a decade-long bull run in the stock market saw the 60/40 portfolio slowly fall out of favor. With market volatility returning, that 60/40 split appears to be making a comeback.
3 ETF Options as Safe Haven Demand Drives Investors to Bonds
Bonds have once again become a default play to help hedge against stock market volatility. As renewed recession fears are adding market fluctuations to a typically tepid summer for stocks, bonds are an ideal safe haven, with three options from Vanguard to consider.
BND: The Easiest Way To Ride The Coming Bond Wave
Three years ago, we discussed BND, focusing on interest rate risk as the ten-year treasury yield bottomed out. BND has faced negative total returns over the past three years due to rising interest rates, but the outlook has changed. The ten-year yield is near the highest of the past decade, and potential rate cuts means potential for upside.
Consider These Key Options for Core Bond Exposure
While investors have been fixated on yields when it comes to bond exposure, the recent volatility could bring them back to fundamentals. Now is as good a time any to add core bond exposure as the equities roller coaster ride gets underway.
