The euro has been in a strong bullish trend against the U.S. dollar throughout 2025, supported by macroeconomic and policy factors. Key drivers for euro strength include U.S. debt concerns, lower U.S. interest rate prospects, and trade policy impacts on the dollar. Risks to the euro's rally include European debt issues, geopolitical tensions, and potential flight-to-safety flows into the dollar.
The Euro has rallied 16.23% against the U.S. dollar in 2025, breaking key technical resistance and maintaining a bullish trend. FXE ETF effectively tracks the Euro/USD exchange rate, offering liquidity and convenience for investors seeking Euro exposure in standard brokerage accounts. Despite the Euro's strength versus the dollar, gold has outperformed both, becoming the second-largest reserve asset for central banks, surpassing the Euro.
Despite recent inflows into FXE and euro strength, I believe U.S. equities and bonds remain the superior long-term allocation for global investors. The underlying narrative is bearish on the dollar, but in my view, it's not a trend justified from an intermarket perspective. That's why I believe the signs of overextension could trigger a contrarian market reaction.
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FXE offers a unique investment opportunity for those looking to gain exposure to the euro. By holding physical euros in a deposit account, FXE enables investors to closely track the euro/US dollar spot exchange rate. This straightforward approach has certain financial consequences that potential investors should be aware of. Specifically, all distributions and share sales from FXE are taxed as ordinary income, potentially increasing the holding cost for investors. Moreover, the physical euros deposited by the fund are uninsured, introducing a default risk associated with its depository, JPMorgan. Another critical aspect to consider is that FXE does not replicate the overnight lending rate provided by its benchmark, distinguishing it from other investment options that may offer such benefits.
FXE specializes in offering a direct investment opportunity into the euro currency through the following structured product: