ARKK isn't sinking, it has sunk. The question is, can it add alpha instead of just being high beta. The ETF has no stark differentiated factors I can see, so I'm skeptical it is capable of more than a bounce in sync with the market. This former market darling peaked at $28 billion in AUM, but is down to “only” $5 billion now.
ARK Innovation ETF is rated a "hold" due to its heavy reliance on mega-cap stocks like Tesla, which limits its growth potential. Cathie Wood's optimistic projection for Tesla to reach $2,600 in five years is concerning and unlikely, given Tesla's current market cap and growth trajectory. ARKK's portfolio includes stocks like Palantir with growth potential, but others like Roku show a boom-and-bust pattern, raising doubts about management's strategy.
The technology-oriented Nasdaq 100 index is back into correction territory, down 10.5% after hitting an all-time high last month.
Cathy Wood, chief executive of ARKK Invest, is a celebrity in the world of finance.
After a bit of a rebound, the Nasdaq Composite index is no longer officially in correction territory, for now at least, down by just 9% from the recent highs as of this writing. However, when it comes to finding excellent ETFs, there are still some excellent bargains for long-term investors.
With the stock market stumbling in the past month or so, some investors have understandably been looking for the best places to put their money amid the uncertainty. Trade war worries and concerns about an economic slowdown are also fueling investor anxiety.
ARKK's top holdings have shifted, with Palantir replacing Block, and the fund's concentration in its top five holdings has decreased to 38.81%. ARKK has outperformed the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF over the past six months, primarily driven by Palantir's strong performance. ARKK's holdings show strong growth and margin expansion potential, positioning the fund for outperformance relative to the benchmark.
It appears that ARKK's strategy often fails to buy into trends early exposing it to bubbles, unlike venture capital funds that invest in private early-stage companies with higher upside potential. The largest holdings in ARKK, such as Tesla and Coinbase, have inflated valuations, indicating that the ETF buys stocks at peak popularity. Since 2019, ARKK has underperformed with an annualized return of 4.6% and higher risk compared to SPDR S&P 500 ETF, a strong sell rating is justified.
The United States economy is showing signs of weakness, as seen in slowing inflation from consumers and businesses alike. With lower readings in reports like the CPI and PPI, investors can safely assume that demand is pulling back across the board.
ARK Innovation ETF continues to underperform the market and, unfortunately, this does not mean that a reversal is coming. The recent sell-off in equities is only a brief example of what's to come through the rest of 2025. At the same time, many of ARKK's top holdings remain barely profitable, with excessively high exposure to market risks.
Things have been looking up for Cathie Wood's flagship Ark Innovation ETF (NYSEARCA:ARKK) since bouncing off last year's August trough.
ARK Innovation ETF's prospects seem gridlocked. The vehicle's fundamental investment thesis seems compelling. ARKK ETF has experienced solid year-over-year market momentum. However, the systematic environment might shift in 2025, resulting in a retracement.