UBS ETF MSCI ACWI Socially Responsible Hedged EUR Accumulating (AWSRIE)
Summary
AWSRIE Chart
US recession risk: Is the UK about to catch a cold?
There’s a reason the old cliché about America sneezing still gets wheeled out: it holds up. A new note from UBS flags that recession risks in the United States are quietly ticking higher again, and while nothing’s broken yet, the cracks are starting to show. UBS tracks three main recession indicators: real-world data, credit conditions and the shape of the US yield curve. And all of them are moving in the same direction. Not alarmingly so, but enough to suggest the so-called “soft landing” might not be the final word on the story. Real-world Let’s start with the real economy. UBS’s preferred tracker is built entirely from hard data: production, employment, capital spending, housing, income and consumption. Not a PMI or sentiment survey in sight. This model had flagged trouble back in 2022, only to reverse course in late 2023 as the economy stabilised. But that recovery has since fizzled out. April data, in particular, showed broad-based weakness across all the usual suspects. As a result, UBS now pegs the US recession probability from this model at 46%, up a chunky 12 percentage points in a single month. Troublesome bond market Next up is the yield curve, the time-honoured market signal where investors look at the gap between short- and long-dated Treasury yields. After two years flashing red, that warning light had dimmed. But now it’s glowing again, albeit faintly. According to UBS, the yield curve is currently implying a recession probability of 18%. That’s a far cry from the extremes of last year, but still a notable uptick. Then there’s credit. UBS’s credit-based model, which looks at financial ratios and lending conditions, didn’t fall into the same trap as the yield curve during the false alarm of 2022–24. It held steady. But even that has now started to shift. The model has climbed to a 48 per cent probability—the highest level since the pandemic. Don't press the panic button...yet Put it all together and UBS’s composite gauge puts the US recession risk at 37 per cent. That’s up from 26 per cent in December and, crucially, closing in on the kind of levels that have historically preceded actual downturns. To be clear, no one at UBS is calling a recession yet. The team stresses that the economy started this year on “okay footing”, but warns that “data deterioration could bring back discussion of recession risks”. What’s more, a lot of these shifts happened before the full impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs is likely to be felt. If those start to bite, the probability numbers could push higher still. Still the world engine for demand For those watching from this side of the Atlantic, the message is pretty simple. The US consumer is still the engine of global demand. If they do start to retrench (or if businesses start scaling back investment) there’s little chance the rest of the developed world comes out unscathed. For now, the lights are flashing amber. But it’s worth keeping a close eye on May and June’s data. If the slowdown starts to look more entrenched, expect the market narrative to shift fast, from soft landing to something a lot bumpier. Polarean Imaging PLC (AIM:POLX, OTC:PLLWF) shares rose 7% in afternoon trading after the company received US regulatory approval to expand the use of its lung imaging agent, XENOVIEW, to children as young as six. The decision by the Food and Drug Administration lowers the age threshold from 12, potentially opening access to around one million additional patients. XENOVIEW, used in MRI scans to measure lung ventilation without radiation, will now be available for younger patients with chronic respiratory conditions. Polarean will also roll out new dose delivery bags tailored to paediatric use, along with updated equipment to ensure accurate gas measurements for smaller lungs. The company said the move marks a significant step in broadening access to advanced lung imaging, while also improving the technology’s appeal to hospitals. A targeted launch of the paediatric system will begin later this year, starting with Cincinnati Children’s Hospital. The stock rose 0.085p to 1.36p.
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UBS (UBS) reported earnings 30 days ago. What's next for the stock?
UBS ETF MSCI ACWI Socially Responsible Hedged EUR Accumulating Dividends
| UBS In 10 months Estimated | Annual | $0.45 Per Share |
| UBS 1 month ago Paid | Annual | $0.45 Per Share |
| UBS 1 May 2024 Paid | Annual | $0.35 Per Share |
| UBS 30 Apr 2024 Paid | Other | $0.7 Per Share |
| UBS 12 Apr 2023 Paid | Other | $0.55 Per Share |
| UBS 12 Apr 2022 Paid | Other | $0.5 Per Share |
UBS ETF MSCI ACWI Socially Responsible Hedged EUR Accumulating Earnings
| 12 Aug 2025 (69 Days) Date | | 0.61 Cons. EPS | - EPS |
| 5 May 2025 Date | | 0.48 Cons. EPS | 0.62 EPS |
| 4 Feb 2025 Date | | 0.31 Cons. EPS | 0.39 EPS |
| 30 Oct 2024 Date | | 0.35 Cons. EPS | 0.43 EPS |
| 11 Sep 2024 Date | | 0.24 Cons. EPS | - EPS |
| UBS In 10 months Estimated | Annual | $0.45 Per Share |
| UBS 1 month ago Paid | Annual | $0.45 Per Share |
| UBS 1 May 2024 Paid | Annual | $0.35 Per Share |
| UBS 30 Apr 2024 Paid | Other | $0.7 Per Share |
| UBS 12 Apr 2023 Paid | Other | $0.55 Per Share |
| UBS 12 Apr 2022 Paid | Other | $0.5 Per Share |
| 12 Aug 2025 (69 Days) Date | | 0.61 Cons. EPS | - EPS |
| 5 May 2025 Date | | 0.48 Cons. EPS | 0.62 EPS |
| 4 Feb 2025 Date | | 0.31 Cons. EPS | 0.39 EPS |
| 30 Oct 2024 Date | | 0.35 Cons. EPS | 0.43 EPS |
| 11 Sep 2024 Date | | 0.24 Cons. EPS | - EPS |
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UBS ETF MSCI ACWI Socially Responsible Hedged EUR Accumulating Profile
| XMIL Exchange | CH Country |
Overview
UBS Group AG, headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland, is a global financial services company that caters to private, institutional, and corporate clients across the globe. Operating through its five main divisions: Global Wealth Management, Personal & Corporate Banking, Asset Management, Investment Bank, and Non-core and Legacy, UBS Group AG delivers comprehensive financial advice and solutions. Founded in 1862, the company has a rich history and underwent a name change from UBS AG to UBS Group AG in December 2014. It prides itself on offering a broad range of financial services and products to meet the diverse needs of its clients.
Products and Services
- Investment Advice and Management: UBS provides investment advice, estate and wealth planning, and investment management services. This includes mortgage, securities-based, and structured lending solutions tailored to meet the specific needs of their clients.
- Personal Banking: The bank offers personal banking products and services that encompass deposits, credit and debit cards, along with online and mobile banking. Their services extend to lending, investments, retirement, and comprehensive wealth management.
- Corporate and Institutional Solutions: UBS delivers a range of corporate and institutional solutions, covering equity and debt capital markets, syndicated and structured credit, private placements, leasing, traditional financing, and transaction banking. These services are designed to assist with payment and cash management services, trade and export finance, and global custody solutions.
- Equities, Fixed Income, and Alternative Investments: The company offers strategies across equities, fixed income, hedge funds, real estate, and private markets. These also include indexed and alternative beta strategies, asset allocation and currency investment strategies, and customized multi-asset solutions.
- Advisory and Fiduciary Services: UBS Group AG provides advisory and fiduciary services, as well as multi-manager hedge fund solutions and advisory services to its clients.
- Capital Market Activities: UBS advises clients on strategic business opportunities and capital fundraising. It also enables clients to buy, sell, and finance securities on capital markets and manages risks and liquidity. This includes the distribution, trading, financing, and clearing of cash equities and equity-linked products, as well as the structuring, origination, and distribution of new equity and equity-linked issues.
- Risk Management and Liquidity Solutions: The company is involved in originating, distributing, managing risk, and providing liquidity in foreign exchange, rates, credit, and precious metals. These services are aimed at helping clients manage their financial risks effectively.
Contact Information
