BIV's long duration and low credit spreads make it sensitive to rising rates and macro risks, especially with current geopolitical tensions. Short-term rates may stay higher than expected due to higher oil prices that could be sustained by conflict in the Middle East. Long-term risks include US isolationist policies threatening the dollar's reserve status, which could worsen funding conditions and hurt US debt. Markets are clearly thinking about this.
With a steepening yield curve and rate cut expectations looming, the environment for the bond market can be a tricky one to navigate. That said, here are three bond funds from Vanguard to consider.
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The yield curve is starting to steepen again, giving fixed income investors an opportunity to consider long-term debt again. However, if the risk of stepping too far out into the yield curve is too much to bear, consider using intermediate bond options.
The question of whether the economy is in a recession or not, a forthcoming presidential election, and interest rates add to the high level of uncertainty in the current market. As such, fixed income investors may want to take a middle-ground approach with bonds and opt for debt with intermediate maturity dates.
BIV is an index fund tracking intermediate term bonds with a moderate duration exposure, high quality portfolio, and low expense ratio. BIV shares have declined by nearly 12% since January 2022. Corporate bond yields are at their highest in over a decade and the interest rate cycle has likely peaked, providing a brighter outlook for BIV and similar funds.
With a forthcoming election paired with the expectation of rate cuts, the bond market could see volatility in the second half of 2024. That said, investors may want to opt for a middle-ground solution for yield and rate risk with intermediate-term bond funds.
Data from a Morningstar report noted that May saw strong inflows for taxable bond funds, confirming the broader trend of bond funds seeing heightened interest within the past year.