Vistry Group PLC (LSE:VTY) shares rose 2.8% to 645.8p after the housebuilder reaffirmed its full-year outlook, saying it still expects a year-on-year rise in profits despite a tough housing market. Ahead of the third-quarter trading update, said broker Panmure Liberum, "many commentators were assuming that Vistry would disappoint", following half-year results in September that did just that.
Vistry Group PLC's (LSE:VTY) focus on affordable and build-to-rent housing may finally be set to pay off. Analysts at Panmure Liberum have reinitiated coverage of the UK's largest housebuilder with a “buy” rating and a 725p target price, arguing that investors are overlooking the company's position at the heart of the government's housing plans.
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Vistry Group PLC (LSE:VTY) shares rose 2.9% as it reported lower profits, as expected, and reiterated guidance that the full year will be more weighted to the second half than usual as government funding begins for the Affordable Homes Programme. House completions of 6,800 were made in the first half of 2025, down 13% on last year, with 73% funded from collaborations for its Partnerships arm.
Vistry Group PLC (LSE:VTY) is still looking to repair its reputation after three profit warnings last year, though the government's plans for increased social housing spending are helping bring some investors back. Its shares are one of the best-performing in the housebuilding sector so far this year, helped by the government announcing plans to allocate £39 billion to affordable homes in coming years, a key area of focus for the FTSE 250 group's bow.
Vistry Group PLC (LSE:VTY) shares jumped 9% to 715p, to lead a second day of gains across the housebuilding sector, after reports that Chancellor Rachel Reeves will allocate billions of pounds to affordable homes. Today's government spending review will include £39 billion for affordable homes at its centre, newspapers including the Financial Times reported.
Vistry Group PLC (LSE:VTY) reported an improvement in its sales rate, rising to 0.91 per outlet per week from the 0.59 announced in March, with the last eight weeks averaging 1.32. In a statement ahead of its annual shareholder meeting, the housebuilder said it continues to expect a year-on-year profit increase in 2025, with performance more heavily weighted to the second half of the year.
Vistry Group PLC (LSE:VTY) reported a 35% fall in profits for last year, which was slightly better than it had previously indicated due to the accounting treatment of major cost overruns in its southern division. Adjusted profit before tax was £263.5 million in the 2024 calendar year, down 35% on 2023, but better than circa-£250 million it guided to in January.
Shares in housebuilders, including Vistry Group PLC (LSE:VTY) and Barratt Redrow PLC (LSE:BTRW), were on the front foot on Tuesday after the government announced £2 billion of new funding to support social and affordable housing.
Vistry is transitioning to a partnership-focused model, aiming to lead in affordable housing with a capital-light approach inspired by US-based NVR. Despite recent cost overruns and profit outlook reductions, these issues are isolated to the legacy business and do not affect the core partnership model. The Labour government's ambitious housing policies and Vistry's proven expertise position the company for long-term growth and substantial shareholder returns.
Vistry Group PLC (LSE:VTY) kept its forecast for results this year unchanged after three profit warnings in the past three months. Group adjusted profit before tax is expected to be around £250 million (2023:£419 million) said the housebuilder, in line with the revised company guidance announced in December.
Three profit warnings for Vistry since interim results have highlighted the difficulties in transitioning to a pure-play asset-light model. Furthermore, the company's most important customers are wrestling with a difficult backdrop with both industry-specific issues and a potentially challenging macro background. Despite these difficulties, I believe the 60% share price drop since September now presents an opportunity for patient investors.