The Simplify Managed Futures Strategy ETF offers stable and substantive income without excessive risk. This fund has shown to have a strategy that works even in more adverse market conditions. CTA is not correlated with equities, this income-investment should continue to offer consistent payouts even if volatility levels rise.
Simplify Managed Futures Strategy ETF is a solid 'managed futures' ETF, sporting a robust track record of positive total returns through market drawdowns. With little exposure to traditional market correlations, it's a proven hedge. We think it's a superior option to bonds, which have failed in this role as of late. As markets become more correlated, options like CTA add meaningful diversification to your portfolio. We rate CTA a 'Buy'.
CTA is an actively-managed, multi-asset class, long-short futures ETF. The fund has outperformed its managed futures peers since inception, slightly underperformed the S&P 500. Risk and volatility are somewhat complicated, but the fund could serve to decrease risk at the portfolio level.
The Simplify Managed Futures Strategy ETF uses a quantitative model for managed futures, aiming for absolute returns with low correlation to equities and support in risk-off events. The fund's trend-following strategy, complemented by non-trend models and the carry factor, helps achieve diversification and improved risk/reward characteristics. Despite a 0.76% expense ratio, the ETF's complex strategies and access to unique instruments justify its cost for long-term portfolio diversification.
Weaker-than-expected services PMI, declining home sales, and deteriorating consumer confidence triggered fears of slowing growth, amplifying a market downturn triggered by a $2.7 trillion options expiration. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan estimate recession probabilities between 15-35%, suggesting that while economic growth is slowing, a severe downturn remains unlikely. This portfolio combines a high-yield covered-call ETF (JEPI), a deep-value ETF (VFLO), a hyper-growth ETF (MGK), and a managed futures ETF (CTA) to provide a 6% yield with 47% lower volatility.
Simplify's Managed Futures Strategy ETF focuses on commodities and bonds. It uses trend, carry, and relative value techniques to capture large directional moves while avoiding "de‐worsification." Among all managed futures funds, CTA boasts the highest negative downside capture ratio. It shines during bear markets while delivering positive returns in most bull markets, a near‐ideal scenario. With tariffs looming and supply chains uncertain, CTA's long commodities (such as coffee, corn, and natural gas) and flexible short positions offer a dynamic hedge against global disruptions.
I recommend the Simplify Managed Futures Strategy ETF as a hedge due to its positive returns in various market conditions and strong performance since inception. CTA's active management by Altis Partners has proven effective, with strategic long/short positions in commodities and treasuries, demonstrating keen trend-spotting abilities. Despite its high turnover and opaque strategy, CTA's 10.62% yield and diversification benefits make it suitable for aggressive and moderate investors with varying allocations.
CTA-B offers a 6.32% current yield, making it an attractive investment-grade preferred stock with solid financial backing from Corteva, Inc. Corteva, Inc.'s strong financial health and low leverage ensure the safety of uninterrupted dividend distributions for CTA-B shareholders. Comparative analysis shows CTA-B is undervalued, offering a potential 10% capital appreciation relative to its peers and Corteva's OTC bonds.
Today, Simplify Asset Management unveiled its latest fund, the Simplify Currency Strategy ETF (FOXY). FOXY uses a foreign currency strategy to provide capital gains for its investors.
ETFs expanded their market share in recent years by bringing mutual and hedge fund strategies to a wider variety of investors. Taking strategies previously locked behind high entry fees and significant management fees, ETFs work to broaden the investing playing field.
The S&P 500 has doubled in the last five years, raising concerns about a potential market top and the need for portfolio hedging. Traditional bonds have struggled due to rising interest rates; alternatives may offer better downside protection. Diversifying with alternatives, like CTA's managed futures or BTAL's market hedge, can reduce portfolio volatility and enhance risk-adjusted returns without significantly cutting equity exposure.
Diversification across asset classes mitigates risks and enhances portfolio resilience - the real "free lunch". Due to low expected correlations, the Simplify Managed Futures Strategy ETF can increase the Sharpe ratio of a portfolio or soften the blow of a drawdown during times of distress. I propose an allocation that could produce 11% annual returns over the next decade or more, at volatility and drawdowns that could be even lower than the stock market's.