CVR Partners is a compelling value play, benefiting from rising fertilizer prices and geopolitical risks impacting European natural gas supplies. UAN offers a strong 10% dividend yield, stable operations, and low correlation with the broader market, making it an attractive portfolio hedge. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, could trigger a surge in European gas prices, improving fertilizer economics for US producers.
CVR Partners offers an attractive 8.6% dividend yield, supported by strong free cash flow and efficient operations at its two diversified production facilities. The company benefits from competitive feedstock flexibility, protecting margins against energy price volatility, and has rebounded to strong gross margins and ROE. Risks include volatile fertilizer prices, dependence on Midwest agricultural activity, and potential regulatory and energy cost pressures impacting future distributions.
Crack spreads have rebounded, supporting CVR Energy's margins and cash flow, especially with low gasoline inventories and favorable OPEC+ production dynamics. The costly Coffeyville refinery turnaround is nearly complete, with no major maintenance expected until 2027, positioning CVR for stronger H2 results. CVR's improved cash flow outlook should enable debt reduction and a likely dividend resumption in early 2026, with its UAN stake providing additional value.
CVR Partners' variable distribution structure results in a high yield for investors willing to hold it through the cycle. Fertilizer market strength in 2025, including strong UAN and ammonia prices, could result in a double-digit yield this year. Improved operational reliability and capacity projects position CVRP for stronger future performance at any point in the cycle.
CVR Partners is poised for market-beating returns due to favorable nitrogen fertilizer demand-supply dynamics, despite a slightly stretched valuation. Strong 4Q24 performance with impressive YoY bottom-line growth and robust cash distribution, despite weather-related challenges impacting sales volumes. Buoyant market conditions driven by rising corn prices, increased farm income from government assistance, and tight global nitrogen fertilizer supply.
CVR Energy operates in petroleum refining, nitrogen fertilizer, and renewable diesel, with refining being the main revenue driver and fertilizer boosting margins through pet coke usage. The Group 3 2-1-1 crack spread is crucial for CVI's refining margins, showing a strong correlation with the company's profitability. Renewable diesel capacity hedges against RIN price volatility, despite uncertainties in government subsidies and future expansion.
CVR Energy stock has significantly underperformed, with a -38% return in 2024, mainly due to a failed Citgo bid and dividend suspension. Despite a positive Q4 2024 earnings report, I maintain a Sell rating on CVI stock due to poor macroeconomic outlook for refiners and renewables. The new Trump administration's energy policies create uncertainty for CVR Energy's renewable investments, making future returns highly uncertain.
CVR Energy has faced significant challenges, including a 40% stock decline and dividend suspension, but Carl Icahn's actions have stabilized the stock. Icahn Enterprises increased its stake in CVI, signaling confidence and creating a near-term floor for the stock price. The Company's liquidity measures, including a $325 million term loan and potential asset sales, should cover upcoming costs despite a weak refining market.
CVR Partners, LP is uniquely positioned to benefit from global trade shifts, European gas crises, and rising corn prices, driving demand for nitrogen fertilizers. Trump's tariffs and deregulation policies enhance UAN's competitive edge, reducing production costs and increasing strategic value in the fertilizer sector. Carl Icahn's increased stake and bullish outlook signal strong insider confidence in UAN's future growth and value appreciation.
Carl Icahn's investment fund halves dividends to increase its holding in CVI, betting on the potential of the undervalued stock.
Icahn Enterprises , headed by billionaire activist investor Carl Icahn, said on Friday it has submitted a proposal to boost its stake in refiner CVR Energy to 81.3%.
Icahn Enterprises LP (IEP) plans to raise its stake in U.S. oil refiner CVR Energy by more than 20%, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday.