Evolution AB, a leading B2B online casino service provider, has strong and improving fundamentals despite a stock price decline since May 2021. The company's primary revenue source is live casino operations, contributing over 85% of total sales, with a market cap around USD 17.2 billion. Despite the stock price drop, Evolution's profit and operating cash flow have doubled, with operating income up nearly 400%.
Evolution AB offers high profit margins, double-digit growth rates, and a PEG ratio of 0.93x, making it an undervalued investment. Evolution's games, like Crazy Time, are highly engaging and profitable, contributing to its strong financial performance and competitive advantage over peers. The company maintains a robust dividend policy, distributing at least 50% of profits, with a 5-year CAGR of 44% in dividends per share.
Evolution AB remains a Strong Buy due to its low valuation, high returns on capital, solid growth, and robust free cash flow despite recent headwinds. Q3 challenges included a strike in Georgia, cyberattacks in Asia, and slower RNG growth, impacting the financials. Evolution's fundamentals are strong with 14.7% net revenue growth, high profitability, and a solid capital allocation strategy including buybacks and dividends.
I upgrade Evolution AB to a 'strong buy' due to 14.7% revenue growth and EBITDA margin improvement to 68.5%, despite negative factors. The company faced challenges like a cyberattack and a strike in Georgia, but still showed strong revenue growth and market resilience. Evolution's competitive advantages are increasing through acquisitions, game development, and geographic expansion, making it difficult for competitors to catch up.
Evolution, a leading iGaming company, has seen its stock consolidate since 2021 and its valuation compress to the current P/E of 16. High insider ownership and an impressive track record shows a strong alignment between the management and the shareholder base. Evolution's asset-light, recurring revenue business model and strong MOAT deserves a higher valuation as temporary concerns start to fade.
Evolution AB has become undervalued after three years of stock-price stagnation. My reverse DCF valuation calculator suggests that the market is implying low-single-digit FCF/share growth over the long term, which looks way too low for this company. Evolution's capital allocation strategy, involving dividends, buybacks, organic investments, and M&A, is a recipe for long-term success, in my view.
Evolution Gaming is a strong buy due to its dominant 70% market share in the live casino market and strategic acquisitions. The company's founders own over 10%, aligning management and investor interests, with a robust capital allocation framework enhancing shareholder returns. Despite short-term headwinds, Evolution's mid double-digit growth potential and undervalued P/E ratio make it a compelling investment at current prices.