EWA offers investors exposure to Australian equities, providing diversification away from US-centric risks and trade policy uncertainties. I previously identified Australia as a relatively safe non-US option amid concerns about US tariffs and foreign policy volatility. The fund's performance has been reasonable in hindsight, supporting the thesis of value in Australian markets.
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Australia's key investment markets—stocks, bonds, and real estate—present lucrative opportunities driven by market cycles and liquidity sources. Stocks are poised for an upward breakout, likely within two years, fueled by the explosive phase of the real estate cycle. Bonds offer opportunities in both new high-yield bonds and older low-yield bonds, with potential gains when interest rates decrease.
Evaluating iShares MSCI Australia ETF as an investment option at its current market price, tracking Australian equities. Previously cautious on EWA, favoring US, Europe, and Canada, which proved justified as EWA's return has been flat. I now see a buy case emerging, as the equities are cheaper than the S&P 500 and offer a strong dividend yield.
Australian stocks have done well in 2024, although they have not kept pace with the S&P 500. I see some positives "down under", including a rising labor force participation rate and growing wages. However, there are headwinds that concern me more. These include richly priced valuations and an earnings season for banks that is likely to disappoint.
Australian shares are poised to rise on Wednesday, with futures showing a nearly 0.2% gain.
Australia has long been recognised for having the highest average dividend yield among global markets. However, this yield has been on a downward trend since 2022.
iShares MSCI Australia ETF has underperformed, with a 0% price return over the past 3 years and a total return of only 15.7%. EWA's high exposure to the materials sector and low exposure to technology result in low-single digit earnings growth forecasts for the coming years. The fund's current forward P/E ratio of 17.5x is on the high end, making it expensive relative to its historical valuation range.
iShares MSCI Australia ETF provides targeted exposure to the Australian equities market, with a focus on large- and mid-cap companies. The EWA fund's top holdings include BHP Group, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, CSL Ltd., National Australia Bank, and Westpac Banking Corporation. EWA offers a straightforward and low-cost way for investors to access the Australian equity market, but it has a significant concentration in the financial sector and may lack diversification benefits for those already exposed to the Asia-Pacific region.
EWA offers exposure to Australian large- and mid-caps, with a tilt toward financials and materials, resulting in a more comfortable P/E than that of the S&P 500. The issue is that Australia's economic growth is anemic, while inflation might require more action from the RBA. All these do not look bullish for stocks. EWA's past performance leaves a lot to be desired, with the 2010s and 2020s being especially challenging as it trailed SPY, delivering higher volatility.