Deutsche Bank has lowered its price target for Glencore PLC (LSE:GLEN) from 480p to 450p, citing weak coal prices, underwhelming 2024 results, and market uncertainty over the company's strategic direction. Despite this, it maintains a 'buy' rating, seeing deep value at current levels.
Glencore's unique value lies in its strong commodity trading operation and disciplined approach to mergers, exemplified by its recent $7bn acquisition of Teck's coal business. CEO Gary Nagle emphasizes share buybacks and potential re-listing on NYSE or ASX for higher valuation, driving significant upside potential. Valuation analysis suggests a 50% upside, with a conservative long-term copper price and stable Marketing segment contributing to the robust forecast.
Glencore plc (OTCPK:GLCNF) Q4 2024 Earnings Call February 19, 2025 3:30 AM ET Company Participants Martin Fewings - Investor Relations Gary Nagle - Chief Executive Officer Steven Kalmin - Chief Financial Officer Conference Call Participants Izak Rossouw - Barclays Jason Fairclough - Bank of America Ephrem Ravi - Citi Alain Gabriel - Morgan Stanley Chris LaFemina - Jefferies Liam Fitzpatrick - Deutsche Bank Myles Allsop - UBS Bob Brackett - Bernstein Matt Greene - Goldman Sachs Alan Spence - BNP Ben Davis - RBC Richard Hatch - Berenberg Alon Olsha - Bloomberg Intelligence Martin Fewings Good morning. Welcome. Thank you for joining us for our 2024 Financial Results.
Glencore PLC has signalled it is considering ditching the London Stock Exchange in favour of a primary listing elsewhere. Following results on Wednesday, chief executive Gary Nagle flagged the miner could potentially move overseas in search of a higher valuation.
London-listed global commodity trader and miner Glencore traded more oil in 2024 than in the previous year, preliminary results showed on Wednesday, but its earnings from energy products fell.
Glencore PLC (LSE:GLEN) attempted to paper over the cracks by increasing its dividend and launching a $1 billion share buyback, as earnings fell for a second straight year in 2024 due to weaker commodity prices. The London-listed miner and commodity trader reported adjusted earnings of $14.36 billion, down 16% from $17.1 billion the previous year, driven primarily by lower industrial coal prices.
Glencore announced a $1 billion share buyback and a $1.2 billion dividend payout to shareholders on Wednesday, even as lower commodity prices depleted its earnings.
Morgan Stanley has upgraded Glencore PLC (LSE:GLEN) to 'overweight', saying the market has overreacted to concerns about weaker coal prices and potential pressure on its trading business. The bank believes these fears are exaggerated and that Glencore now presents an attractive buying opportunity.
Miner and commodity trader Glencore said on Friday it had rejected an unsolicited approach from an unnamed buyer for its operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo at the end of last year.
Glencore PLC (LSE:GLEN) told investors that its full-year 2024 production remained within guidance, with strong second-half performances across key commodities. The company highlighted significant increases in steelmaking coal production following its acquisition of Elk Valley Resources (EVR).
The mining industry is on edge after reports surfaced of potential merger discussions between Rio Tinto and Glencore, two of the sector's most prominent players. Bloomberg News reported that the companies held preliminary talks regarding a tie-up, though the current status of these discussions is unclear.
Glencore's market cap has dropped from over $70 billion to below $57 billion, making it a potential takeover target in 2025. Despite recent declines, commodity demand is expected to rise due to population growth, persistent inflation, and long development times for new projects. The Trump administration's policies could spur M&A activity in the mining sector, enhancing economies of scale and profitability.