IEF: Times Are Tougher, But Yields Aren't Denying It
Sovereign risks are seemingly higher. However, 7-to-10 year yields acknowledge the risks and have therefore priced expected returns higher. We think real rates and inflation expectations are overpriced and will settle lower in due course, providing iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF a helping hand. The term premium is pent-up and CDS values have seemingly overshot. News shocks have contributed and may decay with time, assisting IEF ETF even further.
IEF: Positioning For A Flight-To-Quality Might Be A Good Idea
The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF might benefit from a potential flight-to-quality scenario. We don't think economic circumstances are as bad as many fear. Nonetheless, financial market sentiment could drive risk attribution into safe havens with intermediate U.S. Treasuries being a standout. In our view, IEF ETF has several structural advantages, including a monthly distribution frequency, a expense cost ratio, expert management with a 7-to-10 year bucketed approach, key duration bets.
Play Both Sides: 3 Bond ETFs to Balance Offense and Defense
If you can keep your emotions in check, the volatility in stocks sets up a long-term buying opportunity. However, investors with a lower risk tolerance may want to consider defensive investments that keep them in the market.
S&P 500 Snapshot: Back Below 6000
The S&P 500 finished below 6000 this week for the first time in over six weeks. The index is now 3.09% below its record close from February 19th, 2025 and is up 1.46% year to date.
S&P 500 Snapshot: Worst Day of 2025
The S&P 500 notched two new record highs but also logged its worst day of the year—all in the same week. The index is now 2.13% below its record close from February 19th, 2025 and is up 2.46% year to date.
S&P 500 Snapshot: Inches Away From Record High
.The S&P 500 ended its two-week skid, finishing up 1.5% from last Friday. The index is now just inches below its record close from January 23, 2025 and is up 4.19% year to date.
S&P 500 Snapshot: Another Red Week Despite Midweek Gains
The S&P 500 finished the week in the red despite midweek gains, posting a 0.2% loss from last Friday. The index now sits 1.52% below its record close on January 23, 2025 and is up 2.68% year to date.
Treasury Yields Snapshot: February 7, 2025
The yield on the 10-year note ended February 7, 2025 at 4.49%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 4.29% and the 30-year note ended at 4.69%.
Famous Billionaire’s Money Guy Makes a Bold Move Into Tech
Most investors have probably never heard of Juniper Hill Capital Management, a Silicon Valley-based investment adviser run by Chuck Chai, the managing partner and chief investment officer. Founded in 2018, Chai runs two private investment funds: an onshore fund, Juniper Hill Capital Fund LP, and another offshore, Juniper Hill Capital Fund (Offshore) LP. Key Points About This Article: Chuck Chai might not be a billionaire, but he provides investment advice for former Google CEO and billionaire Eric Schmidt’s family office. In the final quarter of 2024, Juniper Hill Capital Management made just two moves: selling bonds and acquiring more technology. The investment adviser’s 13F assets have an old-school vibe, with a capital allocation of 65% equities and 35% fixed income. If you’re looking for some stocks with huge potential, make sure to grab a free copy of our brand-new “The Next NVIDIA” report. It features a software stock we’re confident has 10X potential. Chai’s firm manages $4.30 billion in assets. Juniper Hill filed its Q4 2024 13F on Feb. 3. As of Dec. 31, 2024, it had $451.4 million invested in five ETFs and one stock. While it’s unknown whether Chai himself is a billionaire, his firm provides investment advice to Hillspire LLC, former Google CEO Eric Schmidt’s family office. Before establishing Juniper Hill, Chai worked directly for the family office. Juniper Hill’s 13F only has six holdings. However, despite the focused portfolio, the investment firm’s buy-and-sell strategy stood out in the final quarter. Here’s why. Bonds Went Overboard in Q4 2024 Juniper Hill’s sale in the fourth quarter reduced its position in the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:IEF) by 32.57%. This ETF invests in intermediate-term Treasury bonds. The bond ETF is quite popular. With nearly $32 billion in net assets, it is the 12th-largest fixed-income ETF by net assets. It owns just 15 Treasury bonds, with an average yield to maturity of 4.5% and a weighted average maturity of 8.5 years. Chai’s firm first bought IEF shares in Q1 2023. According to WhaleWisdom, it paid an average price of $98.02 for the ETF’s shares over the past 21 months it’s owned IEF. As of Sept. 30, IEF was Juniper’s second-largest holding, with a 25.83% weighting. However, with the sale of 359,486 shares in the fourth quarter, it fell two spots to fourth place, accounting for 15.24% of its 13F assets. Why did Chai cut his IEF holdings by one-third? He likely jumped at the chance to sell some of the bond ETF’s shares when they were trading near $100 in mid-September, their highest level in 16 months. Further, as MarketWatch contributor Mark Hulbert wrote in November, there’s very little difference between selling in December and any other month, so it made sense to strike while the iron was hot. Also, the sale of shares provided some additional funds to roll into Juniper’s only buy in the third quarter, but it was a big one. A Bet on Tech The sale of IEF shares likely generated $35 million in proceeds, a decent sum for $451 million in 13F assets. Chai used those proceeds to pay for some of his bet on tech. In the fourth quarter, Juniper Hill acquired 101,926 shares of the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ), a nearly 300% increase in the number of QQQ shares held by the investment adviser. As a result of the purchase, QQQ became Juniper Hill’s third-largest holding, accounting for 15.46%, a five-fold increase from 3.88% at the end of September. Chai only acquired QQQ shares in Q3 2024, acquiring an initial position of 34,605. The significant weight increase suggests the investment adviser saw tech stocks taking off in 2025. If you’re unfamiliar with the QQQ ETF, it tracks the performance of the Nasdaq-100 Index, which are 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq. Technology stocks account for nearly 60% of the ETF’s $323.9 billion in net assets. It’s a big bet. Another Tech Bet and More Bonds As I mentioned, there were only two trades in the fourth quarter. However, besides the big QQQ buy, it also owns 157,750 Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) shares, which account for 4.69% of Juniper Hill’s 13F assets. That brings Chai’s tech bets to nearly 14%. If you’re looking for a simple portfolio to mimic, Juniper Hill’s would be a good one. Juniper Hill’s largest holding is the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY), which accounts for 44.87% of its 13F assets. Despite its prominent SPY position, the investment adviser’s asset allocation is quite traditional: 65% equities and 35% fixed income. In addition to IEF, Juniper Hill owns iShares Core Aggregate U.S. Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:AGG) at 15.81% and the iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:IEI) at 3.92%. It’s a straightforward, tactical way to play the markets without getting burned. The post Famous Billionaire’s Money Guy Makes a Bold Move Into Tech appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..
Treasury Yields Long-Term Perspective: January 2025
This article looks at a long-term perspective on Treasury yields. The chart below shows the 10-year constant-maturity yield since 1962 along with the Fed funds rate (FFR) and inflation.
S&P 500 Snapshot: Seesaw Week Ends on Sour Note
The S&P 500 see-sawed through a data-packed week but ultimately closed with a 1.0% loss from last Friday. Volatility was driven by a mix of major developments.
Treasury Yields Snapshot: January 31, 2025
The yield on the 10-year note ended January 31, 2025 at 4.58%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 4.22% and the 30-year note ended at 4.83%.
