I maintain a Hold rating on EWZ and other ETFs tracking Brazilian indices, citing unattractive risk-return for long-term investors. Recent gains in EWZ are attributed to global factors like Fed rate cuts, not domestic macroeconomic improvements. Brazil's political landscape shifted as Jair Bolsonaro supports his son for 2026, increasing uncertainty and market volatility.
iShares MSCI Brazil ETF remains an attractive play for 2025, driven by BRL appreciation against the USD and appealing valuations. High-interest rates in Brazil and lower interest rates in the U.S. attract foreign capital, supporting inflows into stocks. Brazilian companies should continue to benefit from lower costs on dollar-denominated debt, improving earnings.
I'm adopting a bullish stance on EWZ, supported by FX tailwinds, attractive valuations, and a potential stabilization of the Selic rate, despite ongoing fiscal and political risks. The recent rally in Brazilian equities has been driven more by dollar depreciation and foreign inflows than by local economic progress. EWZ offers efficient exposure to Brazil with a high dividend yield, but has high concentration in a few stocks and above-average volatility.
| XMUN Exchange | US Country |
This company operates as an investment fund that primarily focuses on investing in the equity market in Brazil. It aims to mirror the performance of its underlying index, which is a free float-adjusted, market capitalization-weighted index. This index is specifically designed to gauge the performance of large- and mid-capitalization segments of Brazil's equity market. To achieve its investment objective, the fund makes a commitment to invest at least 80% of its assets in the component securities of the index or in investments that have economic characteristics almost identical to those of the index's component securities. It's important to note that the fund is characterized as non-diversified, meaning it may invest a larger portion of its assets in a smaller number of issuers than a diversified fund.
Given its investment strategy, the fund offers a specific product focus: