Southwest Airlines (LUV 4.34%) operates in an industry that's very exposed to a potential economic downturn.
When retail investors try to gauge the potential future of the stock market or the companies they decide to invest in, there are typically two areas to watch. The first is the business side of the economy as a driver, and then the consumer side as a secondary driver, which comprises the bulk of future GDP growth that boosts or busts the broader S&P 500 index.
The airline industry is facing growing turbulence as the ongoing global trade war creates a cloud of uncertainty over passenger demand and revenue projections. This week, Southwest Airlines LUV, American Airlines AAL and Alaska Air Group ALK withdrew their full-year 2025 guidance, citing macroeconomic uncertainty and demand softness, signaling rougher skies ahead for investors.
Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE:LUV ) Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call April 24, 2025 12:30 PM ET Corporate Participants Julia Landrum - Vice President, Investor Relations Bob Jordan - President & Chief Executive Officer Andrew Watterson - Chief Operating Officer Tom Doxey - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Whitney Eichinger - Chief Communications Officer Conference Call Participants Ravi Shankar - Morgan Stanley Andrew Didora - Bank of America Catherine O'Brien - Goldman Sachs David Vernon - Bernstein Jamie Baker - JPMorgan Sheila Kahyaoglu - Jefferies Conor Cunningham - Melius Research Tom Fitzgerald - TD Cowen Duane Pfennigwerth - Evercore ISI Savi Syth - Raymond James Mary Schlangenstein - Bloomberg News Operator Hello everyone and welcome to the Southwest Airlines First Quarter 2025 Conference Call. I'm Jamie and I'll be moderating today's conference which is being recorded.
LUV's first-quarter 2025 revenues benefit from yield improvements from revenue management actions and capacity moderation.
Airline stocks are in focus today, after sector stalwarts American Airlines Group Inc (NASDAQ:AAL) and Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV) stepped into the earnings confessional.
"Macroeconomic uncertainty" led Southwest Airlines to pull its guidance and cut capacity for the second half of the year, the carrier said on Wednesday.
Southwest Airlines Co (NYSE:LUV), American Airlines Group Inc (NASDAQ:AAL, ETR:A1G) and Alaska Air Group (NYSE:ALK) have joined other major US airline carriers in pulling their 2025 profit outlook amid economic uncertainty and weaker-than-expected travel demand. Handing down its first quarter earnings on Wednesday evening, Southwest noted difficulties in forecasting due to “short-lived booking trends.
Shares of Southwest Airlines (LUV) fell in premarket trading Thursday, a day after the carrier withdrew full-year earnings projections and said it was reducing capacity amid "macroeconomic uncertainty."
While the top- and bottom-line numbers for Southwest (LUV) give a sense of how the business performed in the quarter ended March 2025, it could be worth looking at how some of its key metrics compare to Wall Street estimates and year-ago values.
With little clarity on how consumers will behave in the face of a potentially worsening economy, airlines are struggling to accurately forecast their business.