MongoDB's share price has been under pressure, but I believe it remains a high-quality company with potential for double-digit revenue growth and high margins at scale. The recent success of PostgreSQL has raised questions about MongoDB's competitive positioning, although I believe that this has been overblown. MongoDB's customer base continues to expand, and expansion and retention rates remain healthy.
MDB's weak revenue guidance, intense competition, and broader market headwinds serve as a clear warning sign for investors to stay away.
After dropping more than 50% over the past year, MongoDB has become a very compelling buy at ~4.5x next year's revenue. Investors have reacted harshly to the company's expectations for 12-14% revenue growth in FY26, implying a sharp deceleration from Q4's 20% growth pace. The company has a track record for beating its conservative guidance, outperforming the high end of its original FY25 guidance by 4%.
MongoDB NASDAQ: MDB recently had a historically bad trading day after the database firm's latest earnings on Mar. 5, shares traded down by nearly 27%. As of the March 20 close, the stock is down over 47% from where it started 52 weeks ago.
The stock market has recovered from its correction territory, but there's still significant fear due to tariff-related uncertainty.
MongoDB offers a best-in-class NoSQL database, providing flexibility and scalability for modern applications, making it a preferred choice among developers. Soft FY2026 guidance during Q4 earnings led to a sell-off. A closer look suggests that implied Atlas growth is still in the low 20s, indicating guidance is not as bad. The stock is currently trading at 6.6x forward P/S, which is at the lower end of its 12-month historical range. I believe the negatives are well priced in the stock.
MongoDB's FY25 results show decelerating revenue growth and weak direct sales, with a concerning FY26 guidance indicating ineffective growth strategies. The acquisition of Voyage AI aims to enhance MongoDB Atlas, but success hinges on improving their go-to-market execution and targeting enterprise clients. Despite a solid gross margin and being debt-free, MongoDB remains unprofitable, with high R&D and Sales & Marketing expenses.
MongoDB reported strong Q4 FY 2025 results, with revenue and non-GAAP income from operations growing 20% and 62% YoY, respectively, beating estimates. Despite robust Atlas growth and strategic acquisitions like Voyage AI, FY 2026 guidance spooked investors due to projected revenue deceleration and margin compression driven by its Non-Atlas segment. I maintain a "buy" rating with a $246 price target, believing in MongoDB's long-term AI-driven growth and strategic positioning as the “database for the AI era,” despite short-term investor concerns.
MongoDB, Inc. (NASDAQ:MDB ) Morgan Stanley Technology, Media and Telecom Conference March 6, 2025 2:30 PM ET Company Participants Dev Ittycheria - CEO Serge Tanjga - Interim CFO Conference Call Participants Sanjit Singh - Morgan Stanley Sanjit Singh All right. Welcome to another great session and day four of the Morgan Stanley TMT Conference.
MongoDB's disappointing guidance and reduced profitability outlook have led to a downgrade from a buy to a hold rating, with a new price target of $250. Despite surpassing estimates, MongoDB's Q1 guidance fell short, with projected revenue of $525M and EPS of $0.65, raising concerns about future performance. The company's EPS is expected to drop by 32% YoY to $2.50, making its stock appear expensive with a 90 forward P/E ratio.
MongoDB Inc (NASDAQ:MDB) shares plunged more than 20% on Thursday after the document database-as-a-service issued weaker-than-expected revenue guidance for fiscal 2026. The company guided full year revenue in the range of $2.24 billion to $2.28 billion or 12% growth, below the 18% expected by analysts.
MongoDB, Inc. operates debt-free with $2.3 billion in cash but is overvalued at 150x forward free cash flow, prompting a sell rating. Despite guiding for 20% y/y revenue growth, flawless execution in a tough market is required, which is uncertain. MongoDB's flagship product, Atlas, continues to grow, but competition from Amazon, Microsoft, and Oracle remains fierce.