While the top- and bottom-line numbers for Mondelez (MDLZ) give a sense of how the business performed in the quarter ended March 2025, it could be worth looking at how some of its key metrics compare to Wall Street estimates and year-ago values.
Mondelez International, Inc. (NASDAQ:MDLZ ) Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call April 29, 2025 5:00 PM ET Company Participants Shep Dunlap - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations Dirk Van De Put - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Luca Zaramella - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Conference Call Participants Andrew Lazar - Barclays Kenneth Goldman - JPMorgan Peter Galbo - Bank of America Megan Clapp - Morgan Stanley Christopher Carey - Wells Fargo David Palmer - Evercore ISI Operator Good day and welcome to the Mondelez International First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about one hour, including remarks by Mondelez management and the question-and-answer session.
Mondelez (MDLZ) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.74 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.65 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.95 per share a year ago.
The snack company's sales rose for the quarter despite a decline in North America, while profit took a hit from what its chief executive called unprecedented cocoa costs.
Get a deeper insight into the potential performance of Mondelez (MDLZ) for the quarter ended March 2025 by going beyond Wall Street's top -and-bottom-line estimates and examining the estimates for some of its key metrics.
Mondelez International (NASDAQ:MDLZ) has outperformed its sector despite slow growth, but is overvalued due to its growing position as the market leader. The company's profit margins and ROIC have remained stable, but future profitability is threatened by increasing cocoa prices due to global warming. MDLZ's FCF growth is low, making its current trading price unjustifiable; intrinsic value models suggest the stock is slightly overvalued.
MDLZ's first-quarter results are likely to reflect strong core growth & pricing gains, but cocoa cost pressure may weigh on profitability.
Mondelez (MDLZ) doesn't possess the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations.
Mondelez has outperformed in 2025 due to market stress, but its current valuation is high; I recommend holding rather than buying now. Existing holders should keep their shares and enjoy dividends, as the firm has a strong record of dividend growth and capital allocation. New investors should wait for a better entry point, as the current valuation is stretched and T-bills offer better returns.
Mondelez's 2024 performance missed revenue expectations despite 4.3% organic growth, with soaring cocoa costs impacting Q4 profitability and margins. Management anticipates 5% organic revenue growth in 2025 but expects a 10% decline in adjusted EPS due to cocoa cost inflation. The company aims for a 4% supply chain productivity gain and targeted pricing adjustments to stabilize margins by year-end.
Mondelez (MDLZ) reported earnings 30 days ago. What's next for the stock?
Mondelez share price is already pricing-in future risks even as underlying business performance continues to improve. Even though margins are likely to come under pressure, the long-term impact of tariffs and high cocoa prices is likely to be muted. Nonetheless, the stock is priced on the assumption that margins would fall permanently, which in my view, makes MDLZ a buy even in the face of ongoing risks.