MarketWise is rebounding after a volatile 2024, with new leadership and improved profitability boosting investor confidence. The company benefits from strong retail investor engagement and still-growing demand for independent financial research, positioning it for further market share gains. A clean balance sheet, attractive dividend policy, and discounted valuation versus peers highlight significant upside potential, supported by a conservative DCF analysis.
Despite past issues, MarketWise's recent 33% stock surge and improved operations justify upgrading the rating from ‘hold' to ‘buy' for risk-tolerant investors. Key financial metrics show mixed results: revenue and subscribers declined, but net profits and adjusted operating cash flow improved significantly. Preliminary Q1 2025 results indicate a positive trend in billings, suggesting potential stabilization and early signs of a turnaround.
The business is undergoing a successful turnaround as evidenced by a return to sequential billings growth. Cash flow generation is expected to remain solid, which together with the company's strong balance sheet allows for capital returns to shareholders. The stock currently trades for just 0.67 times annualized billings and 4.5 times normalized FCF.
MarketWise shares have fallen nearly 30% since the announcement of the resignation of its CEO. There is high uncertainty regarding the outcome of the turnaround that was taking place to return the business to profitable growth. Despite the risks involved, I believe the MKTW stock's cheap valuation, coupled with net cash representing half its market cap, presents an attractive risk-reward setup to go Long.