Markets may be fretting over Federal Reserve policy and economic soft landings, but a handful of momentum ETFs have quietly been stealing the show. Across the array of factor funds, momentum has performed best this year.
Court ruling halts Trump-era tariffs, boosting stocks and spotlighting high-beta, momentum ETFs like SPHB, MTUM, XMMO, SPMO and XSMO.
For investors seeking momentum, iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF MTUM is probably on the radar. The fund just hit a 52-week high and is up about 37% from its 52-week low price of $168.49/share.
I'm upgrading MTUM to a buy as momentum outperforms and bullish seasonality supports further gains ahead of the semi-annual rebalance. MTUM's sector allocation—underweight tech, overweight industrials and financials—has driven alpha in 2025, with more upside likely post-rebalance. Technical indicators, including a new all-time high and strong RSI, suggest continued bullish momentum, with a potential price target of $290.
I rate MTUM a buy due to its robust portfolio of high-momentum, financially strong companies, offering strong upside potential. MTUM has outperformed the S&P 500 year-to-date, driven by leading positions in technology and financials. Top holdings like Broadcom, Netflix, Meta, Walmart, and JPMorgan have delivered impressive earnings growth, supporting continued price momentum for the ETF.
Trump signals steep China tariffs may drop, boosting hopes for trade de-escalation.
In a surprising development in the tariff saga, Trump announced a temporary drop in tariff rates for most countries to 10% for 90 days, triggering a historic stock market surge.
I recommend the iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF for its strong performance and risk management, outperforming the S&P 500 by 140 basis points annually. MTUM uses a robust methodology, including z-scores and market cap weighting, with quarterly rebalancing and a 0.15% expense ratio. Combining MTUM with Invesco's S&P 500 Quality ETF offers superior large-cap allocation, outperforming the S&P 500 in all market conditions.
MTUM, a momentum strategy-based ETF from BlackRock, invests in the top 125 large and mid-cap U.S. stocks with quarterly adjustments and additional filters. MTUM selects stocks from both large caps and mid caps, making it a more comprehensive solution compared to the traditional SPMO and XMMO. However, compared to SPMO and XMMO, MTUM has lower performance and a risk level that isn't significantly lower, making it less efficient.
High beta and high momentum ETFs should win amid the Gaza truce, cooling inflation and solid bank earnings.
High-beta and high-momentum products are expected to outperform as investors are bracing for a Santa Claus rally.
Momentum strategies have excelled in 2024, driven by mega-cap stock rallies and unusual market conditions, though 2025 may see narrower outperformance. The iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF underperformed despite favorable conditions due to its methodology and stock selection criteria. MTUM's methodology includes mid-caps and uses a risk-adjusted momentum score, contrasting with the more concentrated and S&P 500-focused Invesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF.