NBIS lifts 2025 capex to $5 billion while racing to meet AI demand, raising questions about its path to a slightly EBITDA-positive year-end.
Nebius has surged nearly 300% in a year and remains positioned for major AI-driven upside, supported by large contracts with Meta, Uber, and Microsoft. FQ3 showed an EPS beat but revenue miss, yet management raised power-capacity guidance sharply and reported all capacity sold out, signaling strong AI infrastructure demand. Despite a high valuation on traditional metrics, Nebius appears cheap if growth delivers, with analysts expecting 5x revenue growth by 2026 and significant scalability ahead.
Nebius Group reported 3Q25 revenue of $146.1M, up 355% YoY, but missed estimates and posted a $100.4M adjusted net loss. NBIS is rapidly expanding AI infrastructure, highlighted by the Mäntsälä campus scaling to 75MW, potentially generating $650M-$1B in annual recurring revenue. Despite high cash burn and premium valuation multiples, NBIS's long-term growth is anchored by major capacity expansions and strategic deals.
The Alger AI Enablers & Adopters ETF outperformed the S&P 500 Index during the third quarter of 2025. NVIDIA Corporation, Nebius Group N.V., and Talen Energy Corp were among the top contributors to performance. Netflix, Inc., Twilio, Inc., and Spotify Technology were among the top detractors from performance.
Nebius Group N.V. shares have fallen 35% from recent highs. NBIS stock has been caught up in a broader AI selloff. While volatility lies ahead, I think NBIS is a long-term winner.
Nebius is a rebranded international AI-cloud company spun off from Yandex, now focused on global growth and innovation. NBIS shares surged post-relisting but dropped after Q3 2025 earnings missed expectations, as revenue growth underperformed and supply constraints limited near-term upside. Despite short-term setbacks, NBIS secured major long-term contracts with Microsoft and Meta, ensuring significant revenue ramp-up through 2026-2027.
NBIS races to expand capacity as surging AI demand sells out every build, driving huge CapEx plans and reshaping revenue targets.
Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) is a standout AI/cloud hyperscaler, surging 211% YTD, driven by major contracts with Microsoft and Meta. NBIS's $3 billion Meta deal and deep Nvidia partnership underscore robust demand and capacity-driven growth, with 2026 ARR targets of $7–9B already half-booked. Despite recent stock pullback and high valuation, NBIS's efficient scaling, strong Q3 results, and pricing power make it an attractive long-term buy.
Nebius Group N.V. faces extreme demand overflow, with Q3 pipeline soaring 70% QoQ to $4B, far exceeding current energizable capacity. Microsoft's $17–19.4B deal and Meta's $3B contract are capped by power limits, not customer appetite. NBIS management raised 2026 contracted power targets from 1GW to 2.5GW, with 800MW–1GW expected fully connected and revenue-generating.
Nebius reported 355% year-over-year revenue growth to $146 million, driven by hyperscaler and enterprise demand for GPU compute power. Adjusted EBITDA loss improved 89% to -$5.2 million, with core infrastructure margins approaching 19% amid stronger utilization efficiency. Capital expenditures surged to $955 million in Q3, raising full-year CapEx guidance from $2 billion to $5 billion.
The much-needed meltdown is finally here, as the Q3'25 earnings season brings forth valuation fears and the popping of the AI bubble across the value chain. Nebius' ability to monetize the AI boom is observed in the growing cloud backlog/ARR, the expanding power capacity, and the cloud segment's positive adj. EBITDA margins. Readers must not forget Avride's robust robotaxi monetization opportunity from the end of 2025 onwards, thanks to the expanded Uber partnership.
NBIS sinks on wider losses and a tightened revenue outlook, raising fresh questions about its breakneck AI infrastructure expansion.