I rate Pagaya a systematic Buy, driven by its shift to GAAP profitability, scalable operating leverage, and a capital-light, diversified funding model. Pagaya's new AI-driven products and deeper partner integration position it as a growth engine, supporting durable margin expansion and recurring revenue. Risks include execution challenges in scaling new products, macroeconomic cyclicality, high valuation, and reliance on non-GAAP adjustments and key partners.
Pagaya Technologies is delivering strong growth, with profitable quarters, top-line beats, and expanding into new lending verticals like auto and point-of-sale financing. Its AI-driven B2B model, capital-light structure, and deep data moat create a scalable, sticky platform that differentiates it from traditional lenders. Despite a 200%+ YTD rally, Pagaya trades at only 2x sales and 12x non-GAAP earnings, with my DCF model showing 17%+ upside from current levels.
PGY posts record Q2 net income, raises the 2025 revenue outlook, and touts a resilient, AI-driven, capital-light business model.
Here is how Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) and Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) have performed compared to their sector so far this year.
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (NASDAQ:PGY ) Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call August 7, 2025 8:30 AM ET Company Participants Evangelos Perros - Chief Financial Officer Gal Krubiner - CEO, Co-Founder & Director Josh Fagen - Head of Investor Relations & COO of Finance Sanjiv Das - Co-Founder & President Conference Call Participants Harold Lee Goetsch - B.
Although the revenue and EPS for Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) give a sense of how its business performed in the quarter ended June 2025, it might be worth considering how some key metrics compare with Wall Street estimates and the year-ago numbers.
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.64 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.69 per share.
PGY expects strong Q2 results, with revenues anticipated to rise 29% year over year.
Pagaya offers a value-oriented AI fintech play, benefiting from secular AI tailwinds and a growing partner ecosystem, though not a high-conviction buy. Growth is stabilizing at high teens, with improving margins and a defensible data-driven moat, but competition and lack of explosive growth temper enthusiasm. Valuation is reasonable at 2.17x EV/forward revenue, reflecting recent profitability and US expansion, yet leaves room for further rerating.
Looking beyond Wall Street's top-and-bottom-line estimate forecasts for Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY), delve into some of its key metrics to gain a deeper insight into the company's potential performance for the quarter ended June 2025.
In the latest trading session, Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) closed at $29.12, marking a -3.09% move from the previous day.
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) possesses the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report.