Philip Morris International, Inc. (NYSE:PM ) dbAccess Global Consumer Conference Call June 3, 2025 5:15 AM ET Company Participants Emmanuel Babeau - CFO Conference Call Participants Damian McNeela - Deutsche Bank Damian McNeela Good morning, everybody. I think we will make a start.
Philip Morris is leading the industry transition to smoke-free products, with 42% of revenue now from alternatives like IQOS and Zyn. Strong Q1 2025 results—10.2% organic revenue growth, rising margins, and raised earnings guidance—demonstrate robust financial health and execution. Despite a premium valuation and some regulatory and competitive risks, PM's stable cash flow and dividend growth justify a strong buy rating.
PM's market leadership in the tobacco market across combustible and smoke-free approaches has been well rewarded indeed, as observed in the premium valuations and inflated stock prices. These have been well supported by the growing net revenues, the expanding shipment volumes, and the richer adj operating margins, significantly aided by the US FDA approval for ZYN. This is on top of the rich cash flow story, with PM's dividend remaining safe despite the management's intensified US-based capex thus far.
Philip Morris (PM) reported earnings 30 days ago. What's next for the stock?
PM shows strong growth prospects, driven by its successful shift to smoke-free products, solid first-quarter results and optimistic guidance.
Philip Morris has successfully pivoted from cigarettes to non-combustible products, with IQOS leading the charge, achieving significant market share and revenue milestones. IQOS, PM's heat-not-burn brand, has outpaced traditional cigarette sales, particularly in Japan, and contributed $11B to PM's $15B smoke-free revenues in 2024. PM's acquisition of Swedish Match and its Zyn brand has bolstered its position in the oral nicotine market, adding $2B in sales and high margins in the critical US market.
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So far, 2025 hasn't exactly been kind to investors. The S&P 500 is down 5.5% year-to-date, weighed down by mounting uncertainty, tariffs, fears of an economic slowdown, and concerns over stretched valuations, particularly in growth-oriented technology stocks.
Philip Morris's Zyn is experiencing explosive growth, with US shipments up 53% and international volumes up 182% year-over-year. PM beat earnings estimates last week and raised guidance after crushing analyst forecasts. The company is in the process of building a massive Zyn factory in Colorado to meet soaring demand, positioning itself for significant future earnings growth.
Philip Morris's stock surged over 41.50% in 2025, driven by the success of its innovative nicotine pouch product, Zyn, which received FDA marketing approval. British American Tobacco's VELO Plus, a Zyn competitor, offers synthetic nicotine, improved pouches, and competitive pricing, capturing 5.4% market share within 12 weeks of launch. BAT trades at a lower valuation compared to Philip Morris and Altria, with a P/E ratio of 9.34x and a 7.05% dividend yield, making it an attractive buy.
Philip Morris (PM) is well positioned to outperform the market, as it exhibits above-average growth in financials.
PM's first-quarter 2025 results reflect increased earnings and sales on robust momentum across all regions.