Branded checkout TPV grew 5% YoY in Q2 2025, lagging global e-commerce, signaling persistent share-of-wallet erosion. The unbranded PSP segment, led by Braintree, is shifting to disciplined profitability, with transaction margin dollars rising despite slower TPV. Adjusted free cash flow fell 42% YoY to $656M, raising concerns about the sustainability of capital returns and buybacks.
I am downgrading PayPal to 'Sell', due to increased competition, mediocre growth, and rising balance sheet risks. PayPal faces intense competition from Stripe, Adyen, and others, with rivals growing faster and gaining market share. Rising credit losses, higher sales and marketing expenses, and increased long-term debt signal worsening fundamentals and margin pressure.
PayPal's global scale and steady profitability make it a stronger buy compared to Block's innovation-driven growth.
Paypal (PYPL) has received quite a bit of attention from Zacks.com users lately. Therefore, it is wise to be aware of the facts that can impact the stock's prospects.
PayPal World may unlock $4.4 billion–$8.8 billion in incremental TPV by 2027, translating to $300 million–$500 million in new revenue based on current take rates. Q2-FY25 saw 8% TPV growth in branded experiences and 12% Venmo TPV growth, driving overall TPV to $443.5 billion and TMD to $3.5 billion. PYUSD expansion to Stellar and Arbitrum with Coinbase and Mastercard support positions PayPal for crypto-enabled cross-border growth among 650 million+ users.
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PayPal is undervalued due to an unclear narrative, despite its broad reach and strong fundamentals in the digital payments space. Recent management focus on core, high-margin segments like PayPal and Venmo, plus improved execution, signal a positive strategic shift. With a low multiple and potential for mid-teens earnings growth, PayPal offers significant upside if it continues to consolidate and simplify its business.
PayPal remains a top pick due to profitable growth, aggressive share repurchases, and a strong balance sheet despite market pessimism. Management signals unbranded processing growth has bottomed, with accelerating momentum in Venmo and branded processing supporting future growth. The stock trades at just 13x earnings, offers a 7% shareholder yield, and looks undervalued even without growth acceleration.
Branded checkout TPV grew 5% YoY FX-neutral, with 60% of U.S. traffic on the upgraded checkout experience. Venmo TPV rose 12%, revenue exceeded 20% growth, and debit card monthly active users surged 40% in Q2 2025. PSP (Braintree) TPV increased 2% FX-neutral as low-margin volumes were deprioritized to protect profitability and improve transaction margins.
Stalling revenue growth, now dragging in low single digits after years of double-digit gains, is, in my view, the main factor keeping PayPal's stock under pressure. Other contributing factors include a recent drop in operating and free cash flows, although there is a caveat here. I believe the $6–7 billion free cash flow target will survive only if the $1.2 billion working capital spike that we've seen over the past six months unwinds.
Investors interested in Financial Transaction Services stocks are likely familiar with Paypal (PYPL) and MasterCard (MA). But which of these two stocks is more attractive to value investors?
Former Amazon and Google Pay executive Ben Volk is headed to PayPal. “I'm thrilled to announce that I'm joining PayPal as the SVP & GM of PayPal Consumer, focusing on how we show up and deliver value for the millions of people who use PayPal every day,” Volk wrote in a Tuesday (Aug.