Since my last writings, I now see a more favorable return/risk profile from both SOXX and SMH. The companies in both funds play a foundational role to our tech future and are some of the more innovative companies. Yet, both funds now trade at large valuation discounts from the broader tech sector.
By Angus Shillington, Deputy Portfolio Manager, and Nick Frasse, Associate Product Manager We unpack where we believe the semiconductor industry is headed, including the rise of hyperscalers, sectors poised to rebound, undervalued opportunities, and potential competitor pressures. The semiconductor industry is poised for another transformative year in 2025.
Semiconductor investors endured a rough week, as DeepSeek fears erupted on Monday, but the fallout seems to have been contained. Robust retail buying and solid market sentiments have helped to mitigate the selling pressure across the market. AI compute isn't going to fall off the cliff, as hyperscalers and big tech double down on their conviction.
$2,000 might not sound like a lot to invest. But even in an exchange-traded fund (ETF), $2,000 could grow by 5x, 10x, or even more over time.
VanEck Semiconductor ETF has a 20% exposure to Nvidia, giving investors a front-row seat to arguably the leading AI semi stock in the market. The SMH ETF offers investors beyond just Nvidia, allowing a more diversified take into semiconductor growth opportunities through the decade. Top holdings like Nvidia, Broadcom, and TSMC are well-positioned to partake in the next growth phase, with semis leading the way.
The artificial intelligence boom has fueled the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite to all-time highs.
Nvidia (NVDA -3.00%) stock was the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 index in 2023 and the third-best performer in 2024. The stock's fantastic run is driven by powerful demand for the company's graphics processing unit (GPU) chips and related technology to enable artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities.
After months of consolidation, the semiconductor sector looks poised for a significant breakout, reigniting investor interest in this recent market-leading industry. Following a strong run in 2023 and the first half of 2024, semiconductors faced challenges midyear.
Chinese start-up DeepSeek trained and developed one of the most powerful AI models with inferior GPUs, for a very modest budget of less than $6M. This suggests that the Gen AI capex is likely to plummet as other companies follow the DeepSeek V3 innovation. SMH is heavily concentrated, with only 3 stocks accounting for 42% of the index, thus vulnerable for a sharp selloff as the Gen AI bubble continues to burst.
The S&P 500 index is set to cap off a banner year. Through Dec. 27, the broad market index is up 25% year to date, and Wall Street is calling for the bull run to continue into 2025 with the consensus estimates of 6,679, or up 12% as of Dec. 27.
Semiconductor names have been among the technology stars of 2024, with the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) higher by 43.60% year-to-date as of December 24. Impressive to be sure, but SMH's fabless counterpart — the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX) — could be an idea to consider in 2025.
Designed to provide broad exposure to the Technology - Semiconductors segment of the equity market, the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is a passively managed exchange traded fund launched on 12/20/2011.