The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF has found support since Trump took office. Negatives were priced in but have not unfolded. Some policies could be positive for TLT and this article looks at four important drivers.
The first quarter of 2025 is already underway, and investors across the market are probably wondering where the best place to put their capital to work is. With this in mind, a few economic and fundamental themes will point out a clear path to a particular area of the market that poses a potential gold mine for the coming months.
Since the Federal Reserve began cutting its benchmark interest rate last fall, shorter-term bonds have not provided much appeal to everyday investors.
First, I would like to express to my colleagues, friends and followers: May the Year of the Snake guide your endeavors to great heights.
Interest rate risk remains significant for investors in 2025, especially in ETFs like the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, due to rising inflation. Inflation swaps indicate market concerns, with one and two-year swaps climbing to dangerously high levels, suggesting inflation is not under control. Rising oil prices pose a risk to Treasury rates, potentially leading to higher yields and lower prices for the TLT ETF.
The outlook for the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF in 2025 hinges on a strong US economy and tariffs. Labour market data is currently in a good balance, but a relatively small rise in unemployment could trigger another growth scare. Uncertainty over tariffs and inflation are weighing on TLT, but they may not be as negative as feared.
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) continued retreating this week, falling from the year-to-date high of $100.2 to the current $87.82. It has plunged to its lowest level since May 31st and formed a death cross pattern.
The stock market, or all financial markets, has changed significantly over the past couple of decades. The main way they have changed is that the concept of individualism is gone, where assets behave separately and individually from each other.
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) slumped by almost 2% after the Federal Reserve delivered its last interest rate decision of the year. TLT slumped to a low of $89, its lowest level since November 18.
Owning long bonds like the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF can provide portfolio stability amidst high U.S. market valuations and potential economic uncertainties in 2025. Lower-than-expected inflation driven by declining shelter and energy costs could spur Fed rate cuts, benefiting bond prices. Rising unemployment increases the risk of a recession in 2025, making bonds a potentially safer investment compared to stocks.
When investors look at the big players on Wall Street, the hedge funds and the investment banks, they aren't the so-called winners just because they have information sources that most retail traders would have to network for years to get. They are winners because they can use information through strategies that increase their odds ever so slightly over the long run.
It's been a wild ride for long-term Treasury ETFs lately, and it's looking like they might have hit a rough patch. Following months of declining interest rates, yields on U.S. Treasurys reversed course in October, and the charts are now flashing a warning: the dreaded Death Cross is looming.