Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (TMV)
ARCA ARCA Primary 
XMEX 
TMV: Bear Bet On Structural Financial Conditions
TMV offers a high-risk, high-reward way to speculate on rising long-term Treasury yields, but is only suitable for short-term, event-driven trades. Concerns about the USD's reserve currency status, driven by isolationism policy, could pressure long-duration Treasuries. Leveraged ETFs like TMV suffer from value erosion and compounding risk, making them unsuitable for buy-and-hold investors or those unfamiliar with their mechanics.
TMV: A Levered Play Against Treasuries
TMV offers leveraged inverse exposure to long-term Treasury bonds, aiming for three times the opposite daily performance of the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. The fund's 3x leverage allows for significant short-term gains, but also magnifies losses and requires hands-on management due to volatility decay. TMV is a potential hedging tool for those with large long positions in Treasury bonds, but its high expense ratio and complex structure are drawbacks.
Turning Bullish Once More In TMV
Initially rated Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares a 'Buy' in 2022, yielding 65% and 51% returns since commentaries, but downgraded to 'Hold' in 2023 due to time decay risks. Leveraged funds like TMV suffer from significant time decay in consolidating markets, requiring active trading rather than holding. TBF's recent MACD buy signal and golden cross indicate an upcoming bullish trend, prompting an upgrade of TMV back to 'Buy'.
Hawkish Remarks On Monday Would Play In Favor Of TMV
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares ETF is a leveraged ETF that takes a 3x position against long-dated Treasuries. Inflation expectations remain high, meaning that inflation will necessarily remain high absent major aggregate demand pressures. TMV could be an appropriate speculative play on Powell's upcoming speech on Monday, which will likely affirm a hawkish tone, as the Fed will see clearly inflation isn't falling enough.
