The stock market correction has raised fears of a recession, with the VIX index showing elevated volatility amid geopolitical and domestic uncertainties. The Trump administration's tariff initiatives and energy policies are causing market volatility but could potentially lower inflation and support a bond market rally. February's CPI data indicates receding inflation, suggesting the Fed may continue cutting short-term rates, which could boost economic growth and lower long-term rates.
The ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury ETF (UBT) aims to deliver twice the daily performance of the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. UBT manages $116.30M, charges a 0.95% expense ratio, and leverages through swaps with a weighted average maturity of 25.90 years and duration of 17.58 years. Key drivers include monetary policy, inflation expectations, growth, geopolitical factors, and compounding from leverage resetting.
Long-duration Treasuries might be a buy, especially in a recession; consider ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury ETF for leveraged exposure. UBT aims for 2x daily returns of the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index, using swaps for leverage. UBT's moderate leverage and lower expense ratio make it appealing compared to peers like Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares.