This article looks at the 10-year Treasury yield's historical trends since 1962, exploring its relationship with key economic indicators like the Fed Funds Rate (FFR), inflation, and the S&P 500. The 10-year Treasury yield has experienced dramatic fluctuations, ranging from a peak of 15.
The yield on the 10-year note ended May 30, 2025 at 4.41%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.89% and the 30-year note ended at 4.92%.
The yield on the 10-year note ended May 16, 2025 at 4.43%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.98% and the 30-year note ended at 4.89%.
The yield on the 10-year note ended May 9, 2025 at 4.37%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.88% and the 30-year note ended at 4.83%.
The yield on the 10-year note ended May 2, 2025 at 4.33%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.83% and the 30-year note ended at 4.79%.
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. This analysis focuses on the P/E10 ratio, a key indicator of market valuation, and its correlation with inflation and the 10-year Treasury yield.
This article looks at the 10-year Treasury yield's historical trends since 1962, exploring its relationship with key economic indicators like the Fed Funds Rate (FFR), inflation, and the S&P 500. The 10-year Treasury yield has experienced dramatic fluctuations, ranging from a peak of 15.
The yield on the 10-year note ended April 25, 2025 at 4.29%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.74% and the 30-year note ended at 4.74%.
VGUS and VBIL are similar ETFs, but VGUS invests in up to 1-year treasuries, while VBIL focuses on 0-3 month treasuries. VGUS should theoretically outperform VBIL in a normal yield curve, but current market conditions and skewed demand for intermediate treasuries negate this advantage. The macroeconomic environment and geopolitical uncertainties are preventing yield curve normalization, making VGUS comparable to VBIL.
The yield on the 10-year note ended April 17, 2025 at 4.34%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.81% and the 30-year note ended at 4.80%.
The yield on the 10-year note ended April 11, 2025 at 4.48%, its highest level since mid-February. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.96% and the 30-year note ended at 4.85%.
The yield on the 10-year note ended April 4, 2025 at 4.01% while the 2-year note ended at 3.68%. These are the lowest levels for each respective note since October.