VGLT offers lower fees compared to TLT, making it an attractive long-term bond solution, especially after the February fee cut. During the last year of trading, betting on rate cut expectations would have led to negative real returns on VGLT. Short-term maturities, on the other hand, generated alpha, especially after the recent dump of 20+ year Treasuries.
Uncertainty fills the air. Will President Donald Trump's steep tariffs ignite a global trade war?
Research includes back-testing portfolios with 100% fixed income in LTCB, LTT, and a 50/50 blend, showing LTCB has the best returns and risk-adjusted returns. Adding 10% equity to fixed income portfolios reveals LTT's advantage, with 10/90 Equity/LTT yielding the highest return and risk-adjusted return. The 10/90 Equity/LTT portfolio also experiences the smallest maximum drawdown, highlighting its superior performance in a mixed asset strategy.
Long-term treasury bonds, when added minimally, offer superior returns and are ideal for high-risk investors with a long-term investment horizon. Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Index Fund ETF Shares is a top choice for long-term treasury exposure due to its diverse holdings, large AUM, liquidity, and low expense ratio. Performance tests with varying US stocks/bond ratios show long-term treasuries provide better returns in minimal exposure scenarios compared to short and intermediate-term bonds.
The Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) and the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETFs crashed hard this week as short and long-term US Treasury yields surged to a two-year high. The TLT ETF dropped to $86, down by over 14% from its August 2024 highs, and is at the lowest point since May 2.
Trump's second term may introduce aggressive trade policies and fiscal reforms under Scott Bessent. VGLT ETF has a decent potential for appreciation, though investors should consider risks from inflation, budget deficit, and tariffs. Long-term bonds could benefit from the Fed rate cuts, especially in a hypothetical recession scenario.
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) and the Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Index Fund ETF (VGLT) ETFs have pulled back in the past few weeks as investors assess the next actions of the Federal Reserve and a potential black swan event in the US. The more popular TLT ETF retreated to $94.
VGLT is a leading long treasury ETF positioned well for a rate declining cycle. Warren Buffett is increasing his cash position by selling leading equity stocks like AAPL and BAC, prompting asset rotation to increase fixed income investments. More asset allocation in long government bonds is recommended, with VGLT ETF as one of the preferred choices.
VGLT is a long-term bond ETF with low risk and good future potential, making it a hedge strategic allocation for the current market volatility. The ETF provides a fixed income dividend of 3.77% distributed monthly, making it an attractive investment option. The Federal Reserve is expected to start cutting interest rates, which will lead to capital growth for VGLT and other bond ETFs.