ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF offers short-term exposure to S&P 500 volatility, acting as a hedge during sharp market declines, but is not suitable for long-term holding. Due to futures roll costs and long-term market growth, VIXY tends to decay in value over time, making it best for tactical, short-term trades. Risks include value erosion, unpredictable volatility spikes, and complex tax implications, so careful timing and position management are essential.
VIXY has dropped 32% since our 'Strong Sell' call; the trade thesis has played out as volatility normalized. With VIX back under 20 and the futures curve in contango, further downside in VIXY is limited, so we move to a 'Hold' rating. VIXY is strictly a short-term trading instrument, not suitable for buy-and-hold due to persistent value erosion over time.
Investors often panic during volatile markets, leading to poor decisions; current market volatility is historic, comparable to Covid and the Great Financial Crisis. The S&P VIX Index index measures market volatility; current high levels are unsustainable long-term as continuous put buying is unrealistic. ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF tracks short-term VIX futures; it gains during market upheaval but suffers massive losses over time due to the roll effect.
VIXY is not a suitable long-term portfolio hedging tool due to negative roll effect in VIX futures, down -85% in 3 years. VIXY is only profitable in rare events, up 9.9% for the year despite a 55% gain after the August 5, 2024 VIX spike. Alternatives for portfolio hedging include buying Treasuries and market neutral funds like BTAL, which have shown better performances.