Subscribers to Chart of the Week received this commentary on Sunday, May 4.
If you're feeling overwhelmed by the stock market right now, you're not alone. The S&P 500 had one of its fastest drops on record in early April, and the Nasdaq Composite hurtled into a bear market, falling more than 20% from its high just in February.
If you're interested in broad exposure to the Technology - Semiconductors segment of the equity market, look no further than the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), a passively managed exchange traded fund launched on 12/20/2011.
Tech giants roared, adding to strong market gains last week. Tariff fears cooled a bit amid prevailing uncertainty.
Recent developments have made the return/risk ratio from SMH far more attractive than that from the general tech sector represented by QQQM. The market has overacted to the near-term impacts from tariff rates while underestimating the secular growth potential for the holdings in SMH. The holdings in SMH play a foundational role in the exponential growth of our digital future, such as AI applications.
The ongoing tariff/ trade war and the higher recessionary risks may trigger a painful "wave of order cancellations through the supply chain," contributing to SMH's steep selloff. It remains to be seen if the AI spending trends and the ongoing data center capex boom may be durable, with it potentially impacting the semiconductor company's future performance. Even so, SMH remains attractive due to the top three holdings' cheap valuations and oversold status, compared to historical trends.
President Trump's reciprocal tariffs have caused mayhem in semiconductor stocks. The established semi supply chain could be upended as Trump looks set to bring manufacturing prowess back to the US. TSMC as we know it might have to contend with a new order while working with Intel to remodel American semiconductor manufacturing.
Based on the Elliott Wave Principle, a countertrend rally to the $5,000-$ 5,700 range is developing, as five waves down are completing from the January high.
The VanEck Semiconductor ETF holds 26 positions, with a high concentration in top semiconductor companies like NVIDIA and TSMC. The ongoing AI revolution drives extraordinary growth in semiconductor demand, supported by massive capital expenditures from tech giants and rapid user adoption of AI technologies. Despite potential volatility, the SMH ETF offers a solid mix of equities to benefit from AI trends, though investors should be prepared for high volatility.
Semiconductor stocks have been under pressure but are consolidating, setting up for a potential uptrend resumption in 2025. SMH, a concentrated ETF with 25 semiconductor stocks, has outperformed peers over the last year. Strong earnings, particularly from NVDA, and ongoing demand for semiconductors support the investment thesis for SMH.
Following Nvidia's recent earnings report, we discuss the rapid evolution of AI-driven semiconductor demand and the broader implications for the semiconductor industry and investors. In our latest semiconductor outlook discussion, we broke down the latest shifts in AI-driven semiconductor demand, Nvidia's evolving role, and what these trends mean for investors.
Semiconductor companies at the center of the AI boom have a high bar to clear with investors, and they're struggling to do it. Marvell Technology is the latest example of a company that's seen its stock plunge due to lofty investor expectations.