JP Morgan has initiated coverage of Greggs PLC (LSE:GRG) with an “overweight” rating and a price target of 2,110p by December 2027, suggesting around 35% upside from current levels.The shares rose 6% to 1,680p. The bank said the bakery chain is a “structural winner” in the UK consumer landscape, citing strong operational metrics across its estate.
Shares of British quick-service restaurant Greggs have been weak this year, with the ADSs down around 20%. Like-for-like sales growth at company-managed shops was just 1.5% in Q3, driven by weak consumer sentiment that has affected the entire industry. Capital spending is currently elevated as Greggs is expanding its supply chain capacity. This has caused its net cash position to temporarily dwindle, hitting earnings due to lower interest income.
Analysts are split over sausage-roll merchant Greggs PLC (LSE:GRG) following a third-quarter update that revealed weaker volumes and a slowdown in store openings. The bakery chain said total sales rose 6.1% in the 13 weeks to 27 September, down from 7% in the first half of the year.
Greggs PLC (LSE:GRG) shares bounced further away from five-year lows seen last month as a quarterly update encouraged analysts and investors with news that after a very difficult July, August and September were better. The shares warmed up 7% to 1,721p on Wednesday lunchtime.
Greggs PLC (LSE:GRG) reported a further slowdown in sales growth in the third quarter but insisted that its full-year outlook was unchanged. The bakery chain said total sales rose 6.1% in the 13 weeks to 27 September, down from 7% in the first half of the year.
Greggs plc faces slowing revenue growth, rising overhead costs, and declining margins, with new store openings risking cannibalization and a saturated UK market. Despite a strong brand and loyal customer base, Greggs lacks the necessary pricing power and meaningful product expansion to drive future growth or offset inflationary pressures. The company's high capex phase strains its balance sheet, with low cash reserves and increasing debt, raising concerns about sustainability and future returns.
Greggs PLC (LSE:GRG) chief executive Roisin Currie stressed that she is "clear on the strategic opportunities that lie ahead" as the bakery chain reported interim results that had largely been pre-released. Total sales of £1.03 billion for the 26 weeks to 28 June, were up 7% on the prior year, with company-managed shop sales up 2.6% on a like-for-like basis and franchised shop LFL sales up 4.8%.
Greggs is a dominant UK bakery chain with strong brand loyalty, stable margins, and a 4% dividend yield, now trading at historically low valuations. Despite recent share price declines due to macroeconomic headwinds and a hot summer, long-term fundamentals and growth prospects remain robust. Expansion is focused solely on the UK, with over 100 net new stores opening annually, supporting sustainable 7-8% growth rates.
UBS says there are no structural issues with Greggs PLC (LSE:GRG) despite recent trading challenges, reaffirming its positive view on the bakery chain's positioning and strategy. The bank's latest analysis, based on its Evidence Lab data, highlights strong consumer perceptions of Greggs' price and quality, stable to improving market share, and robust engagement with its mobile app.
Earnings forecasts for Greggs PLC (LSE:GRG) for this year and next were cut by Barclays following weaker-than-expected trading and a recent unscheduled update, where the company had blamed hot weather for its poor performance. Discussions with the company indicate that hot weather was the single largest reason for the downgrade, as the company had bemoaned.
After Greggs PLC (LSE:GRG) issued an unscheduled trading update, where it lowered its full-year profit outlook, analysts said the baker's putting the blame on the hot weather did not ring true. Like-for-like sales growth slowed to 2.6% in the first half, which analysts at Panmure Liberum suggested meant that June sales were negative.
Greggs PLC (LSE:GRG) warned that full-year profits are likely to fall compared to last year, as it blamed slower growth in recent weeks on hot weather. Total sales in the first half of the year came to £1.03 billion, the FTSE 250-listed baker said in a trading update, a 6.9% increase compared to the prior year, or 2.6% on a like-for-like basis.