Mueller Industries is undervalued and I assign a Buy rating, given its strong fundamentals and attractive entry point. Despite weakness in some markets like construction, the company maintains robust free cash flow and operational strength across diversified segments. Mueller's solid balance sheet and clear growth strategy—internal improvements and acquisitions—position it well for future gains.
Mueller Industries delivered strong earnings, driven by acquisitions and higher copper prices, but underlying sales volumes declined due to weaker construction and manufacturing demand. The company boasts a robust balance sheet with $1 billion in cash and no debt, though rising inventories and receivables warrant monitoring for potential customer payment issues. The Nehring acquisition diversifies revenue away from cyclical sectors, positioning Mueller to benefit from trends in infrastructure and data center growth.
Mueller Industries, Inc. is expected to report Q4 and full-year 2024 results with $1.12 EPS and $893M in revenues, reflecting a 22% y/y growth. Analysts often underestimate MLI's potential; the company has consistently beaten EPS estimates, suggesting a likelihood of positive surprises. Concerns include potential margin declines, election-related uncertainties, and the impact of domestic manufacturing policies on costs and international growth.
Mueller Industries, Inc. (MLI) is a big-time player in copper, making its shares rise.
Mueller Industries has delivered over 487% TSR in five years, significantly outperforming the SPY, and remains attractively valued with strong profitability and returns. Revenues grew from $2.43B in 2019 to $3.4B TTM, with NOPAT compounding at 32% annually, boosting ROIC from 8.9% to 25%. Management has created $1.77B in shareholder value since 2019, but recent declines in NOPAT margins and FCF warrant close monitoring.
One has delivered spectacular returns. One has spectacular potential.
Bloomberg's “Odd Lots” podcast recently discussed with energy investor John Arnold why it's so difficult to build products in America. The discussion got me thinking about American manufacturing stocks.
Mueller Industries' margins have remained strong despite declining copper prices, indicating a fundamental change in their business model. The company has announced a significant acquisition, signaling a shift in their strategy towards horizontal acquisitions. The acquisition of Nehring Electrical Works Company could potentially boost Mueller Industries' EBITDA and EPS.