LVMH's 44% share price drop reflects normalization after post-pandemic excess, not structural decline. Current sentiment and expectations are notably low. Valuation is now attractive: LVMH trades below historical averages and peers, with earnings- and cashflow-yields implying modest, achievable residual growth assumptions. Recent financials are bumpy, but this is industry-wide. Negative sentiment may set the stage for positive surprises.
Louis Vuitton (OTCMKTS: LVMHF) founder and chief executive officer (CEO) Bernard Arnault has been buying LVMHF shares quite aggressively.
LVMH's scarcity-driven strategy preserves brand equity and pricing power, enabling strong margins and resilience even during economic slowdowns. Controlled supply across flagship maisons like Louis Vuitton and Dior ensures exclusivity, full-price sales, and customer loyalty, minimizing the need for discounting. Despite a modest Q1 2025 revenue dip, LVMH's diversified segments and vigilant management maintain healthy cash flow and dependable returns for investors.
LVMH's business remains under pressure, with Q1 showing a rare -3% organic sales contraction and Q2 expected to be similarly weak due to tariff-induced demand disruption and soft Chinese consumption. Luxury demand is bottoming out, and historical patterns suggest a turnaround is likely in H2 2025, as global consumer sentiment stabilizes and trade risks become clearer. Despite near-term headwinds, LVMH's valuation has become attractive, trading ~20% below its historical average P/E, offering a compelling entry point for long-term investors.
LVMH faces real challenges, including revenue declines and external factors like tariffs and China's economic slowdown, but remains a high-quality, well-managed company. Despite poor Q1 results, LVMH's strong brand, expertise, and capital allocation support a long-term investment thesis. Valuation scenarios show potential for recovery, but the duration of challenges impacts intrinsic value; cautious optimism is warranted.
LVMH faces challenges with China's stalled growth and struggles with new products, despite strong heritage brands and selective consumer demand. Temporary headwinds include unsustainable pandemic-driven demand and a weak macro environment, impacting LVMH's fashion and leather goods segment. A creative turnaround should be sufficient to overcome headwinds. Strategic acquisitions and the Arnault family's stock accumulation signal confidence in LVMH's long-term prospects, despite the current valuation reflecting a less optimistic outlook.
LVMH CEO Bernard Arnault said on Thursday that if the United States and the European Union did not find a solution on tariffs, it would be Brussels' fault.
LVMH Moët Hennessy -- Louis Vuitton (LVMUY -4.36%) (LVMHF -3.47%) was being punished on Tuesday, following Monday's release of a dispiriting quarterly revenue report. In mid-session action, investors continued to sell out of the company's stock -- its American depositary receipts (ADRs) were down by nearly 4%, at a point when the benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC -0.14%) was only sagging by 0.2%.
Hermès surpassed LVMH's valuation on Tuesday after Bernard Arnault's company reported disappointing sales. The 3% decline in first-quarter sales compared with a 2% rise forecast by analysts.
LVMH briefly lost the top spot as the world's most valuable luxury group to Hermes International, before recovering it as the stock's losses eased.
LVMH is considering moving more of its manufacturing into the US to mitigate tariff risks. The group's CFO said it was looking into shifting manufacturing for Louis Vuitton and Tiffany & Co. If Trump's proposed tariffs go into effect, imports from the European Union will be taxed at 20%.
LVMH Moët Hennessy - Louis Vuitton, Societe Europeenne (OTCPK:LVMHF) Q1 2025 Revenue Call April 14, 2025 12:00 PM ET Company Participants Rodolphe Ozun - Director, Financial Communications Cecile Cabanis - CFO Conference Call Participants Anne-Laure Bismuth - HSBC Zuzanna Pusz - UBS Thomas Chauvet - Citi Antoine Belge - Exane BNP Paribas Chiara Battistini - JP Morgan Luca Solca - Bernstein Edouard Aubin - Morgan Stanley Louise Singlehurst - Goldman Sachs Charles-Louis Scotti - Kepler Cheuvreux Dana Telsey - Telsey Advisory Group Rodolphe Ozun Ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon and welcome to today's conference call. I am Rodolphe Ozun, Director of Financial Communications at LVMH.