Rare earths have become big news lately. Contrary to the “rare” label, they're plentiful in our planet but mainly in China. And wherever they are, they're hard to produce. But (1) China and the U.S. aren't bosom buddies right now, so we worry about supply cutoffs. And (2) REEs are critical to many modern industries, and defense needs. MP and its deals with the U.S. and Apple (APPL) put it ahead of USAR. But the latter, though not as developed as MP, is also worth owning even without MP-like deals.
Wall Street analysts are now unanimous in being bullish on MP Materials' stock, after Morgan Stanley's Carlos De Alba upgraded it to overweight.
Traditionally, our economy and markets have been all about supply and demand. Industrial policy, that's for other places. Other governments pick winders. Ours doesn't.
MP Materials has dropped by over 20% since I last checked in October, which adds to its attractiveness, as valuations now look more appealing. Moreover, China's recent decision to expand the scope of rare earth export restrictions, which was subsequently postponed, underlines continued security concerns that work in MP's favour. The company's revenues dropped in Q3 2025, as it halted sales to China, but a pickup in NdPr revenues and initiation of sales in the magnetics segment still bode well.
Many investors vividly remember the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s. During that era, speculative websites with no revenue collapsed, wiping out billions in market value.
The rare-earth play is gaining renewed investor attention after receiving multiple analyst upgrades that highlight its strategic value and attractive risk-reward profile.
MP's expanding production, DoW-backed deals and a clearer path to profitability make it stand out in the rare earth race against USAR.
MP Materials Corporation (NYSE:MP) is up 4% to trade at $57.48 this morning, after receiving an upgrade from BMO Capital to "outperform" from "market perform.
But, like many high-flying stocks that peaked in mid-October, things turned quickly for this name. By Nov. 6, MP traded at around $52, dropping 47% from its all-time high closing price.
MP Materials (NYSE:MP) shares jumped about 9% on Wednesday following the announcement of a joint venture with the US Department of Defense and the Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Maaden) to develop a rare earth refinery in Saudi Arabia. Under the agreement, MP and the Pentagon will collectively hold a 49% stake in the joint venture, while Maaden will maintain a minimum 51% interest.
MP's NdPr output surges 51% in Q3, setting a new record and exceeding its entire 2024 total.
MP Materials' stock was surging Wednesday after the rare-earth producer announced a partnership with the U.S. government to build a refinery in Saudi Arabia.