Current crude oil sentiment is extremely bearish, yet physical demand remains robust and inventories are low. Energy sector policy challenges and declining rig counts may limit U.S. production growth, further supporting bullish oil positioning. USOI's mechanical covered call strategy while not for us, is likely to work over the next 6-9 months in generating solid returns.
The USOI ETN's strong distribution yield has offset crude oil's negative fundamentals, delivering 3.4% total returns since September. However, with OPEC+ plans to increase production by 2.2 million barrels over two years, increasing oil supply may cap oil prices and act as a headwind. Furthermore, President Trump's tariff policies are expected to slow global growth and oil demand, worsening oil price fundamentals.
USOI: Bullish Oil Technicals, Strong Seasonality, Mixed Fundamentals (Rating Upgrade)
USOI offers high monthly income through a covered call strategy on the USO ETF. Backwardation in oil futures helps USOI generate income. USOI is best suited for income-focused investors with a short-term horizon who are comfortable with the risks.
The USOI ETN uses a covered call strategy on USO ETF, offering high monthly distributions. However, investors are cautioned as the USOI/USO ETF has significant tracking errors relative to oil commodities. Currently, the futures curve is in backwardation, which generates a positive 'roll-yield' for USOI/USO. Looking forward, oil is at a crossroads as bullish and bearish fundamentals fight to exert dominance on oil prices.
High jet fuel demand expected this summer with potential supply-related upside from a busy hurricane season. USOI offers exposure to covered call investment strategy on Reference Oil Shares, but there are bearish risks from high global oil supply. Implied volatility in the oil market is at historic lows, leading to a downgrade of USOI ETNs.