This article provides a top-down analysis of the materials sector based on fundamental metrics. The construction materials industry is slightly overvalued, while the chemicals industry has the worst value and quality scores. SPDR® S&P Metals and Mining ETF is best suited for tactical allocation in the metals and mining subsector, with value characteristics and recent XME outperformance.
Copper's surge and XME's 45% rally signal optimism, but I maintain a hold rating, due to mixed technicals and neutral valuation. XME's equal-weight structure and SMID-cap focus drive volatility, with a P/E above 18 making fundamentals less attractive after the recent run-up. Seasonal trends favor metals and mining in July, but resistance between $66-$71 and flat long-term moving averages temper my enthusiasm.
I rate XME a ‘Buy' due to its low valuation compared to gold and its potential to hedge against tariff-fuelled inflation and dollar depreciation. XME trades at a discount relative to the broader market with a P/B of 1.41, P/E of 14.1, and P/CF of 8.42. XME historically outperforms gold during recovery phases after being temporarily devalued relative to gold during broader market sell-offs.
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The fund aims to mirror the performance of the S&P Metals & Mining Select Industry Index, which is a part of the larger S&P Total Market Index (S&P TMI). This Index specifically targets the metals and mining sector, representing a broad range of companies engaged in the extraction and production of metals, including precious metals like gold and silver, industrial metals such as iron and copper, and other mining activities. By employing a sampling strategy, the fund selects securities that are believed to collectively match the overall performance of the index. It allocates at least 80% of its total assets to securities that form part of the index, ensuring a focused investment in the metals and mining industry. The fund is characterized as non-diversified, meaning it might invest more heavily in fewer securities than a diversified fund, potentially increasing its volatility and risk.
The primary service offered by the fund is the aim to track the performance of the S&P Metals & Mining Select Industry Index. This involves investing in a portfolio of securities that represent the metals and mining segment of the S&P TMI, thereby providing investors exposure to the metals and mining industry.
Instead of investing in all the securities that comprise the index, the fund employs a sampling strategy. This method involves selecting a representative sample of securities that are expected to have, in aggregate, a similar investment profile to the index. This strategy allows for efficient management of the fund and potentially reduces costs associated with fully replicating the index.
The fund commits to investing at least 80% of its total assets in the securities that make up the index, adhering closely to its target market segment – the metals and mining industry. This concentrated investment strategy is designed to closely emulate the performance of the index and cater to investors looking for specific sector exposure.