This article provides a top-down analysis of the materials sector based on fundamental metrics. The construction materials industry is slightly overvalued, while the chemicals industry has the worst value and quality scores. SPDR® S&P Metals and Mining ETF is best suited for tactical allocation in the metals and mining subsector, with value characteristics and recent XME outperformance.
Copper's surge and XME's 45% rally signal optimism, but I maintain a hold rating, due to mixed technicals and neutral valuation. XME's equal-weight structure and SMID-cap focus drive volatility, with a P/E above 18 making fundamentals less attractive after the recent run-up. Seasonal trends favor metals and mining in July, but resistance between $66-$71 and flat long-term moving averages temper my enthusiasm.
I rate XME a ‘Buy' due to its low valuation compared to gold and its potential to hedge against tariff-fuelled inflation and dollar depreciation. XME trades at a discount relative to the broader market with a P/B of 1.41, P/E of 14.1, and P/CF of 8.42. XME historically outperforms gold during recovery phases after being temporarily devalued relative to gold during broader market sell-offs.
The SPDR S&P Metals and Mining ETF has outperformed the broader materials sector recently, despite long-term underperformance. I believe this outperformance will continue, as the sub-sector is still cheaper by valuation than the broader sector fund. New executive orders compel many agencies and departments of the government to fast-track minerals production, and reduce barriers to entry.
The S&P 500's historic high suggests caution; investing in cheaper ETFs like SPDR S&P Metals and Mining ETF offers better value. XME, with significant exposure to steel and cyclical commodities, is positioned for potential gains as steel shows signs of recovery. XME's equal-weighted approach results in higher volatility and P/E ratios, but offers strong short to medium-term commodity appreciation potential.
SPDR S&P Metals and Mining ETF seeks to replicate the S&P Metals & Mining Select Industry Index, with an expense ratio of 0.35% and $1.95 billion AUM. XME has shown recent gains but remains volatile; its performance is often outpaced by the S&P 500 due to inherent sector biases. Cyclical factors and potential economic boosts under a Trump presidency could drive demand for commodities, favoring metals and mining stocks.
XME's recent weakness may be a buying opportunity as recession fears are likely overdone, with potential for a recovery rally post-election. XME tracks the S&P Metals and Mining Select Industry Index, holding a diversified yet volatile mix of 36 equally weighted large and small cap stocks. Despite recent economic indicators suggesting a downturn, the slow-moving cycle implies a recession might still be months away, making the current panic premature.
Copper prices hit a two-month low amid concerns about global growth trade and a rising US Dollar Index. I am downgrading the SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) from buy to hold, as the fund is more expensive on a P/E basis today versus last summer. XME faces technical challenges, too, with a broken uptrend.