Summary
British American Tobacco: Deleveraging, Buybacks, 5% Yield Fuel Next Leg Of The Bull Run
I anchor my bull thesis on British American Tobacco's third FY25 revenue upgrade, 95% cash-flow conversion, planned 2.0–2.5x leverage, and an increased £1.3bn 2026 buyback despite deleveraging. H1 2025 US revenue grew 3.7% despite a 7.6% combustibles volume decline, with pricing lifting combustibles revenue 11.4% and Velo Plus lifting the modern oral segment. I also see vapour and heated products as headwinds. Vuse revenue faces a high-single-digit FY25 decline, glo revenue is flat, and heated share is down 1.2 ppt.
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British American Tobacco Smells Like A 12% Equity Bond
Based on the earnings outlook and tax rate projection from its 2025 interim report, British American Tobacco now resembles an equity bond yielding ~12%. To make it more attractive, I also see significant coupon growth potential in the years to come. My growth rate projection is ~5% annually (vs. 6%+ from consensus) based on its strong ROCE and capital allocation flexibility.
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Bailador Technology Investments Limited Profile
| Tobacco Industry | Consumer Staples Sector | Tadeu Luiz Marroco CEO | CXA Exchange | US1104481072 ISIN |
| GB Country | 48,989 Employees | 30 Dec 2025 Last Dividend | 14 Feb 2017 Last Split | 14 Apr 1980 IPO Date |
Overview
British American Tobacco p.l.c. is a global leader in the tobacco and nicotine market, offering a wide range of products to consumers across the world. Founded in 1902, the company has established a strong presence in the industry with its headquarters located in London, United Kingdom. British American Tobacco is committed to providing adult consumers with a variety of tobacco and nicotine products, maintaining a portfolio that includes traditional cigarettes to newer, reduced-risk products.
Products and Services
- Vapour Products - Includes innovative vaping technology through their Vuse brand, catering to consumers seeking smoke-free nicotine delivery methods.
- Heated Tobacco Products - glo, another brand under British American Tobacco, provides consumers with heated tobacco experiences, which heat tobacco without burning it.
- Modern Oral Nicotine Products - Velo represents the company's offer in the modern oral category, delivering nicotine in a discreet and spit-free format.
- Combustible Cigarettes - A traditional part of British American Tobacco's portfolio, featuring globally recognized brands such as Dunhill, Kent, Lucky Strike, and Pall Mall, among others, catering to consumers who prefer the traditional smoking experience.
- Traditional Oral Products - Including snus and moist snuff, these products are marketed primarily to consumers in markets with a tradition for such products, with brands like Grizzly and Kodiak standing out.
- Distribution - Aside from manufacturing, British American Tobacco takes pride in its extensive distribution network, ensuring their diverse range of products is available to adult consumers through retail outlets worldwide.
Contact Information
