Mengniu is rated as a Buy, after my assessment of the raw milk price cycle and the company's profitability enhancement initiatives. Raw milk prices in China have likely bottomed, which should positively impact CIADF's topline and bottom line in FY25. The company has a good chance of meeting its medium-term margin improvement target; it has opportunities to enter more profitable dairy markets and scale up lower-margin business units.
I upgraded Mengniu to a Buy, as it is an undervalued stock with promising growth and profitability prospects. Key growth drivers for CIADY include expanding in the under-penetrated cheese product category and the ASEAN region. Premium milk and ice cream segments are pivotal for margin improvement, with Monmilk leading in premium milk and Aixue excelling in ASEAN ice cream markets.