CRWV's federal push boosts momentum as soaring Q3 revenues and early NASA adoption signal wider public-sector potential.
CoreWeave, Inc. remains a Strong Buy despite a 40% stock decline driven by supply chain delays in data center infrastructure. CRWV Q3 revenues surged 134% to $1.36B, but margins compressed due to rising overhead and lack of operating leverage. Supply chain bottlenecks, particularly in power-shell delivery, have delayed CRWV revenue and CapEx, leading to lowered full-year guidance.
I am initiating coverage with a buy rating, driven by extraordinary revenue growth and a unique role in the AI GPU ecosystem. CoreWeave posted 134% YoY revenue growth and a 61% adjusted EBITDA margin, but faces margin compression and high leverage with $16 billion net debt. The company's $55.6 billion revenue backlog and supply-constrained AI market support continued high growth, though execution risks and debt remain material.
SuRo Capital remains a hold as AI-driven gains face headwinds from CoreWeave's dip and broader risk-off sentiment in AI. CRWV's sharp decline limits near-term returns, capping upside despite SuRo's resilient NAV per share and continued dividend distributions. OpenAI, at 11% of SuRo's portfolio, is a key forward value driver, but faces mounting competition and valuation risk.
The recent 30% drop in CoreWeave's stock (NASDAQ: CRWV) is warranted due to a mix of short-term execution challenges and notable balance sheet risks. Although the primary narrative of substantial AI demand remains unaltered, the market is no longer viewing CRWV as an “up-and-to-the-right” high-growth story.
The recent 30% drop in CoreWeave's stock (NASDAQ: CRWV) is warranted due to a mix of short-term execution challenges and notable balance sheet risks. Although the primary narrative of substantial AI demand remains unaltered, the market is no longer viewing CRWV as an “up-and-to-the-right” high-growth story.
CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV) Presents at Bank of America Leveraged Finance Conference Transcript
As an AI cloud provider that has been backed by investments from Nvidia, CoreWeave stock is still up an impressive +90% since launching its IPO earlier in the year.
CoreWeave has published its MFU rate of 35% to 45%, stating it's 20% higher than competitors, which means other AI data centers have MFU rates more in the 30% range. CoreWeave's Q3 revenue grew by 133.7% YoY and 12.5% QoQ to $1.37 billion. The company beat analyst consensus estimates by a solid 6.6%. The company has a high debt of $14.03 billion and cash of only $2.49 billion at the end of Q3.
CoreWeave and Nebius are growing at incredible rates thanks to the booming demand for data center compute. Both companies seem set to deliver outstanding growth in the long run thanks to their huge backlogs.
CoreWeave's 40% selloff from a third-party build delay and bubble chatter is timing noise in a supply-constrained AI infrastructure cycle, with demand, backlog, and build-out still ramping. With RSI deeply oversold and scenario analysis implying roughly 15%–155% 12-month upside from $72/share, CRWV offers contrarian, asymmetric returns if investors tolerate volatility and size positions near 2%. Key risks include hyperscaler concentration, leverage, and execution on ~$56 billion of backlog amid infrastructure bottlenecks, plus reliance on Nvidia's roadmap and hyperscalers' in-house silicon.
We're upgrading CoreWeave to 'Buy', as recent earnings and improved fundamentals ease prior concerns about debt and unit economics. CRWV posted 133% YoY revenue growth and strong operating cash flow, with expectations for continued profitability and a positive net cash position by 2028. The valuation has become more attractive after a 60% stock decline, with multiples now in line with neo-cloud peers, supporting a bullish outlook.