SJM hikes coffee prices to offset tariffs and green coffee inflation, but warns of volume declines in fiscal 2026.
Luckin's early move into the US, along with its growing presence in Singapore and Malaysia, sets up a disciplined, capital-light international expansion strategy that market is not pricing. The company's turnaround from its 2020 fraud crisis reflects strong governance reforms and disciplined execution, restoring investor trust and positioning Luckin as a credible, modern global brand. Its core China business remains the profit engine, with over 24,000 stores and a proven franchise model expected to drive store count past 32,000 by 2025 end while expanding margins.
Luckin Coffee is outperforming the market, driven by scale, tech innovation, and a digital-first retail model that boosts efficiency and customer engagement. Despite price wars, Luckin's long-term supply contracts and massive roasting capacity allow it to maintain aggressive pricing while expanding margins and market share. The company is reshaping Chinese coffee culture, leveraging delivery, digital engagement, and gamified promotions to drive rapid growth in lower-tier cities.
The Chinese coffeehouse is hoping it can create buzz for its brand in the Big Apple.
Westrock Coffee Company operates in a massive, growing industry, but faces significant risks and challenges amid volatile commodity prices and rising costs. Recent revenue growth was driven by higher coffee prices, not operational improvements, while profitability and cash flow metrics have worsened year-over-year. Management is optimistic, targeting substantial EBITDA growth by 2026 through expansion and a shift to ready-to-drink products, but execution risk remains high.
Shares of Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) fell slightly Thursday morning even as the coffee and soft drink maker posted better-than-expected results, lifted by U.S. beverage sales. However, the impact of soaring coffee prices muted investor enthusiasm.
Coffee Holding reported mixed Q1/FY2025 results with strong profitability solely the result of outsized hedging gains. In addition, free cash flow was negatively impacted by unfavorable working capital movements and the recent acquisition of Empire Coffee. With more expensive inventory working its way through the income statement, margins might be negatively impacted over the next couple of quarters.
I categorize D.R. Horton as a "Coffee Can Compounder" due to my long expected holding period, strong management, and expected long-term performance. D.R. Horton has significant national and local scale, enhancing its operational efficiency. I expect there to be significant growth in single family housing in the years to come. The company has a history of market share growth, strong management, and prudent capital allocation, making it a compelling long-term investment despite cyclical industry challenges.
KDP's fourth-quarter 2024 results benefit from continued brand strength and improvements in volume/mix performance.
Luckin Coffee: Recovery Priced In, But Risks Loom Large
NEXE Innovations Inc (TSX-V:NEXE, OTC:NEXNF) announced that it has made its third delivery to Bridgehead Coffee, fulfilling a purchase order placed at the end of January. This delivery is part of a two-year master manufacturing agreement established in December 2024, under which NEXE supplies Bridgehead with its compostable coffee pods.
Fast growing Oregon-originated drive-thru coffee chain Dutch Bros ended its fiscal year on a high, beating expected earnings and revenue and, earlier this month, opening its 1,000th outlet, in Orlando, Fla.