Maintain Hold rating on Mister Car Wash due to persistent weakness in retail traffic impacting long-term growth prospects. Q3 2025 results show strong subscription business performance, but retail same-store sales remain in low double-digit decline. MCW's Unlimited Wash Club pricing power and competitive environment normalization are positives, yet UWC membership growth has stalled sequentially.
Mister Car Wash, Inc. ( MCW ) Q3 2025 Earnings Call October 29, 2025 4:30 PM EDT Company Participants Edward Plank - Vice President of Investor Relations John Lai - Chairperson, President & CEO Jedidiah Gold - CFO, Treasurer & Corporate Secretary Conference Call Participants David Bellinger - Mizuho Securities USA LLC, Research Division Justin Kleber - Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division Alexia Morgan - Piper Sandler & Co., Research Division Michael Lasser - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division Jacob Nivasch - Guggenheim Securities, LLC, Research Division Simeon Gutman - Morgan Stanley, Research Division Phillip Blee - William Blair & Company L.L.C.
While the top- and bottom-line numbers for Mister Car Wash (MCW) give a sense of how the business performed in the quarter ended September 2025, it could be worth looking at how some of its key metrics compare to Wall Street estimates and year-ago values.
Mister Car Wash (MCW) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.11 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.1 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.09 per share a year ago.
Mister Car Wash shares have dropped 35% YTD, but the business remains stable with growing sales, EBITDA, and a strong subscriber base. MCW's subscription model, leading market share, and strong balance sheet provide competitive advantages in a slowing but still competitive car wash industry. At just 7x 2026 EBITDA and 9x free cash flow, MCW appears undervalued, with a fair value estimate of $7-8 per share (45-65% upside).
I maintain a Hold rating on Mister Car Wash due to ongoing retail weakness despite strong subscription performance and encouraging marketing results. MCW's pricing power and resilient UWC membership growth validate the subscription model, but retail sales declines are dragging overall results and profitability. The competitive landscape is easing and marketing pilots show promise, yet retail traffic softness and slower store expansion raise growth concerns.
Mister Car Wash, Inc. (NASDAQ:MCW ) Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call July 30, 2025 4:30 PM ET Company Participants Edward Plank - Vice President of Investor Relations Jedidiah Marc Gold - CFO, Treasurer & Corporate Secretary John Lai - Chairperson, President & CEO Conference Call Participants Christian Justin Carlino - JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division Christopher Thomas O'Cull - Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, Research Division Justin E. Kleber - Robert W.
Although the revenue and EPS for Mister Car Wash (MCW) give a sense of how its business performed in the quarter ended June 2025, it might be worth considering how some key metrics compare with Wall Street estimates and the year-ago numbers.
Mister Car Wash (MCW) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.11 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.13 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.11 per share a year ago.
Mister Car Wash's fundamentals remain strong, with rising revenue, profits, and cash flow even in light of recent share price underperformance. The company's Unlimited Wash Club subscription model drives recurring revenue, with membership and comparable store sales both growing. Management projects continued growth through new locations and expects revenue, EBITDA, and adjusted net income to rise in 2025.
Hold rating for Mister Car Wash due to uncertain macro environment and potential impact on consumer discretionary spending, posing near-term risks to earnings. MCW's operational performance is strong with solid revenue growth, improved profitability, and aggressive store expansion, but UWC price hike churn impact needs monitoring. Retail traffic is crucial for UWC growth; any economic downturn could reduce car wash demand, affecting subscription growth and overall revenue.
Mister Car Wash, Inc. (NASDAQ:MCW ) Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call April 30, 2025 4:30 PM ET Company Participants Eddie Plank - VP, IR John Lai - Chairman and CEO Jed Gold - CFO Conference Call Participants Simeon Gutman - Morgan Stanley Randy Konik - Jefferies David Bellinger - Mizuho Peter Keith - Piper Sandler Phillip Blee - William Blair Michael Lasser - UBS Chris O'cull - Stifel Justin Kleber - Baird John Heinbockel - Guggenheim Bobby Griffin - Raymond James Tristan Thomas-Martin - BMO Capital Markets Thomas Wendler - Stephens Operator Good afternoon. And welcome to Mister Car Wash First Quarter 2025 Conference Call.