Early data on institutional activity for Q1 2025 looks favorable, with 46 new funds taking positions and existing holders buying the dip in Q1. From a price action perspective, I see a breakout from the $25 level, accompanied by the highest trading volume since April 9. From a regulatory perspective, the company is well-positioned to keep loading on Blackwell GPUs, considering the recent announcement that the AI diffusion rule is now unenforceable.
Nebius Group N.V. is making strategic deals that'll boost growth and should benefit from external forces, from Trump altering Biden's chip export ban. The stock should easily cross +$30 per share. Nebius just got in bed with Bezos Expeditions with a $72 million investment in Toloka, and I think this will boost outlook. I'm expecting the renting price of GPUs, which is Nebius' main business, to go up with increased demand for Blackwell and a bigger international market to tap into.
Nebius Group has published its audited FY2024 financials, reinforcing my bullish view on the company. The company disclosed financial metrics for each of its business segments in the 20-F filing. I expect the company to significantly exceed its projected ARR revenue forecast by the end of March.
Nebius Group N.V.'s aggressive GPU deployment (22k Blackwell GPUs) and timely Kansas City data-center launch will confirm operational strength. Execution here is pivotal for reaching ~$1B ARR by late 2025. Robust $2.4B cash reserve and minimal debt give Nebius flexibility to scale rapidly despite very high capex. Strategic Nvidia partnership significantly reduces execution and chip supply risks. With AI infrastructure spending doubling recently and TAM growing at ~35% CAGR, NBIS stock's current price ($25) deeply undervalues potential; my $55 target anticipates strong margin improvement into 2026.
Shares of Nebius Group (NBIS 6.42%) are flying today. After surging more than 13%, the artificial intelligence (AI) cloud infrastructure company was holding on to a gain of 8.3% as of 11:38 a.m.
Nebius benefits from expanding infrastructure offerings, but intense competition from tech behemoths and macroeconomic challenges remain concerns.
Nebius Group, an AI infrastructure company, leverages its vertical integration to develop a competitive advantage. The company is focused on deploying its Blackwell data center to attract customers in 2025. Despite lacking scale and brand recognition, Nebius' smaller size offers personalized service, making it a speculative buy on high growth potential. While financially solid with $2.49b cash and aiming for $825m midpoint revenue in 2025, Nebius faces significant operating losses and high depreciation expense.
Nebius' strategic positioning as a neocloud triggers its robust growth prospects, as observed in the management's promising December 2025 ARR guidance. This is significantly aided by numerous hyperscalers' growing partnerships with other neoclouds, thanks to its more efficient cost per server utilization. Combined with the recent market wide selloff, we believe that NBIS' high-growth investment thesis is compelling indeed, albeit carrying start-up risks.
Nebius is positioned as a major AI megatrend winner, with strong engineering strengths and significant demand for its GPU and AI services. The company is experiencing high demand, with GPU capacity fully sold out and additional services expected to grow, targeting 30% EBIT margins. Nebius focuses on the entire AI ecosystem, offering additional services and developing a superior AI cloud, with plans to expand data centers and secure long-term contracts.
Nebius offers Nvidia H100 GPU access as low as $3.15/hour for 12-month contracts, undercutting CoreWeave's $4.76/hour. Operating costs in Serbia are under $0.025 per GPU-hour, enabling industry-low pricing and high potential margin upside post-CapEx. Nebius spent nearly $2 billion in CapEx over three years, building proprietary data centers and custom AI infrastructure.
Nebius is a full-stack AI neocloud optimized for machine learning, attracting Nvidia's investment and poised for significant growth in the AI infrastructure market. OpenAI's image generation breakthrough has spiked GPU demand, benefitting Nebius, as AI-generated visual content becomes mainstream in creative industries. Nebius's AI-native cloud platform and custom infrastructure differentiate it from hyperscalers and neocloud rivals, offering integrated AI solutions for developers.
NBIS stock has dipped 58% recently, largely due to broader market weakness and negative commentary from Jim Cramer, but I see a buying opportunity. Despite current losses, Nebius is projected to break even on EBITDA in 2025 and achieve profitability in 2026, indicating strong future growth. Valuation is attractive with a forward P/S ratio of 5.3x for FY2026, significantly lower than industry averages, suggesting substantial upside potential.