The Europe-based cloud services provider Nebius (NASDAQ:NBIS) has seen its stock rise by 70% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the overall market. Unlike conventional hyperscalers like Amazon's AWS or Microsoft's Azure that provide a wide range of general-purpose cloud services, Nebius is part of a new category of "Neoclouds" that concentrate on high-performance infrastructure specifically for AI workloads.
Despite a 67% run-up, Nebius remains undervalued by over 30%, as Wall Street's conservative estimates fail to grasp the company's explosive ARR growth. The company's deep partnership with Nvidia, and early access to cutting-edge GPU tech give NBIS a unique competitive advantage for attracting lucrative AI workloads. The upcoming Q2 earnings report is a critical catalyst. Strong results should force analysts to revise their inexplicably low estimates, closing the valuation gap.
NBIS stock is up 81% YTD, but rising capex, behemoth AI cloud rivals, and losses raise red flags for investors.
Nebius Group is riding explosive AI infrastructure demand, posting 385% YoY sales growth and targeting $1B annual recurring revenue this year. Despite current losses, Nebius has a clear path to EBIT profitability and aims for 20-30% EBIT margins, supporting a strong re-rating potential. Valuation is justified by Nebius' faster growth, versus peers like Nvidia, with a 10-12x 2026e sales multiple reflecting its intrinsic value.
Nebius Group remains a buy for me, as the fundamental AI infrastructure thesis is intact despite recent volatility and high beta. Technical analysis suggests more upside potential, with bullish moving average crossovers and a possible inverse head and shoulders pattern forming. The current consolidation phase may present a good entry point, but prudent position sizing is crucial given NBIS's volatility.
Nebius is an AI company positioned at the epicenter of the booming AI infrastructure market. The company's proprietary supercomputers, full suite of AI solutions, and competitive pricing mean that revenues will soar in the coming years.
Nebius is the first European cloud to offer NVIDIA Blackwell GPUs, leveraging early capital and strategic partnerships to capture sovereign AI market share. Cheap convertible debt, early hardware access, and data moat from Toloka position Nebius for rapid growth, margin expansion, and geopolitical advantage. Execution risk and regulatory uncertainty exist, but Nebius' capital structure, pre-sold inventory, and ARR momentum mitigate downside versus peers like CoreWeave.
Nebius Group is building AI factories to service the AI revolution. Management intends to scale capacity by 40x in the next few years, to more than 1 GW. Once scaled, NBIS will boast a robust margin profile of at least 20%.
Nebius stock has seen a good momentum in the past few weeks as the market cap races above $12 billion. The Q1 performance was quite good with $1.4 billion in cash, which has increased after recent private placement of $1 billion convertible notes. The management has forecasted reaching $1 billion in ARR by year-end, but the main issue will be the ability to reach positive EBITDA in the next few months.
I initiate Nebius (NBIS) with a 'BUY' rating and a $57 fair value, driven by robust AI cloud infrastructure expansion and Nvidia partnership. Nebius's access to Nvidia's latest GPUs and rapid data center growth in Europe and the US position it strongly in a booming $260B AI TAM. The company posted 385% revenue growth in Q1 FY25, with management guiding for $750M-$1B ARR by year-end and strong medium-term visibility.
Nebius Group NASDAQ: NBIS has had its share of hurdles and headwinds, but is now well-positioned to advance its stock price. The primary hurdle was the divestiture of its Russian operations, which closed last year.
NBIS lifts 2025 capex to $2 billion to scale its AI infrastructure globally and unlock growth in high-demand markets.