We initiate Philip Morris International Inc. at Hold with a $170 target, citing strong smoke-free momentum but stretched valuation versus peers. Operational execution—especially ZYN and IQOS scaling—drives above-consensus EPS forecasts, with cost savings and mix shift fueling margin expansion. Supply chain constraints and regulatory risks could cap upside, making capacity execution and policy developments key swing factors for the stock.
Philip Morris has outperformed the market and tech giants over 5 years, driven by strong growth in smoke-free products like ZYN and IQOS. Despite impressive financial results and a successful smoke-free transition, I am downgrading my rating to neutral, due to limited upside and a lower dividend yield. PM now trades at a premium valuation with a sub-3% yield, making alternatives like MO, VZ, and growth stocks more attractive for new capital allocation.
Philip Morris International's transformation to smoke-free products like ZYN and IQOS drives strong growth, higher margins, and outperformance, versus traditional tobacco peers. Despite a lower dividend yield than competitors, PM's capital appreciation and consistent dividend growth make it a superior long-term investment. Valuation is elevated at a 25.8x P/E, but justified by double-digit EPS growth, industry-leading profitability, and a future-proof product portfolio.
PM's smoke-free pivot fuels a 50% rally, but its stretched valuation may signal a pause for investors.
Stocks making new highs tend to make even higher highs, particularly when analysts' positive earnings estimate revisions are present. And that's precisely what these companies have seen over recent months thanks to strong quarterly results.
Philip Morris International PM continues to lean on pricing as a key earnings driver. The company delivered a strong first quarter of 2025, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rising 12.7% year over year to $1.69.
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Philip Moriss is strategically evolving beyond its traditional cigarette business, exemplified by the remarkable success of its "Zyn" oral nicotine patch.
PM sees smoke-free products drive 44% of Q1 profit as ZYN and IQOS momentum redefines its future beyond tobacco.
PM stock soars 50.1% year to date, fueled by smoke-free growth, premium pricing and bullish earnings momentum.
Philip Morris International, Inc. (NYSE:PM ) dbAccess Global Consumer Conference Call June 3, 2025 5:15 AM ET Company Participants Emmanuel Babeau - CFO Conference Call Participants Damian McNeela - Deutsche Bank Damian McNeela Good morning, everybody. I think we will make a start.
Philip Morris is leading the industry transition to smoke-free products, with 42% of revenue now from alternatives like IQOS and Zyn. Strong Q1 2025 results—10.2% organic revenue growth, rising margins, and raised earnings guidance—demonstrate robust financial health and execution. Despite a premium valuation and some regulatory and competitive risks, PM's stable cash flow and dividend growth justify a strong buy rating.