There's no ignoring it. President Trump's tariffs and trade threats are roiling the markets, sending the S&P 500 into a correction for the first time since 2022.
Philip Morris International remains a strong buy due to its dominance in smoke-free products like IQOS and ZYN, outperforming the S&P 500 by over 20% since my last article. The latest earnings report showed robust growth, with total revenue up 10% and smoke-free product sales up 15%, highlighting PM's market leadership of the hottest growth story in consumer staples. Currency fluctuations have always posed a risk, but a weakening dollar could boost PM's earnings further, aligning with a favorable macroeconomic backdrop for tobacco stocks with international end markets.
Philip Morris International officially launched IQOS in Austin, Texas, on Thursday, kicking off efforts by the world's largest cigarette maker to build a market for its flagship heated tobacco device in the United States.
Philip Morris International has surged 66% in the past year, outperforming even Nvidia amidst a market shift towards quality investments. Zyn, the company's nicotine pouch product, is flying off the shelves. Zyn's popularity among fraternities and affluent younger consumers has led to massive supply shortages.
The stock market has been selling off, and there is an increasing chance that the U.S. economy could be headed toward a recession. In fact, the Atlanta Federal Reserve is now predicting that Q1 gross domestic product (GDP) will decline by 2.1% after predicting a more than 2% gain in late February.
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Philip Morris' premium valuations are justified by the recent US FDA approval for ZYN, attributed to the Nicotine Pouches segment's undeniable growth driver prospects. This is on top of the robust smoke-free growth across IQOS's growing users/ market share, richer overall operating margins, and a healthier balance sheet. These reasons are likely why the PM stock continues to outperform the wider market and its tobacco peers, as it emerges as the undisputed king in the tobacco market.
Philip Morris International Inc is reportedly mulling the sale of its cigar business in the US under a wider shift to smoke-free products. According to Bloomberg, advisers had been brought in to gauge buyer interest over a potential sale.
Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE:PM ) Consumer Analyst Group of New York Conference (CAGNY) 2025 February 19, 2025 1:00 PM ET Company Participants Jacek Olczak - Chief Executive Officer Emmanuel Babeau - Chief Financial Officer Conference Call Participants Bonnie Herzog - Goldman Sachs Bonnie Herzog Hi everyone, thanks so much for joining us today. It's a pleasure to welcome Philip Morris International back to CAGNY this year, including Jacek Olczak, Chief Executive Officer; and Emmanuel Babeau, Chief Financial Officer.
While investors in the tobacco space have tended to be more focused on dividends over the years, Philip Morris International (PM 1.29%) has quietly turned itself into a strong growth company as its smoke-free business continues to drive strong results. The company's shares were once again climbing following its fourth-quarter earnings results.
In the current state of the stock market, investors argue over whether valuations are too high. Some see historical indicators as signs of doom, while others feel that future earnings will justify prices.
Philip Morris delivered strong Q4 results, surpassing EPS and revenue estimates, driven by surging demand for non-traditional products like IQOS and ZYN. Non-traditional products now represent 40% of total revenue, significantly boosting gross profits. Despite strong performance and profitability, I maintain a hold rating due to Philip Morris' high valuation with a forward P/E ratio of 18.7X.