Going Into December, SPY Or TLT, Which Is The Better Buy? (Technical Analysis)
November was a strong month for SPY, gaining nearly 6% and closing above its 10-month EMA, signaling a bullish trend. TLT showed mixed signals, oscillating around its 10-month EMA, but recent higher highs and lows suggest a potential bullish trend. The TLT:SPY relative strength ratio indicates that SPY has consistently outperformed TLT since July 2020, reinforcing a preference for equities.
TLT: The Bessent Bottom?
Trump's nomination of Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary is seen as positive for TLT, boosting market confidence with a +2.59% rally. Bessent's market-friendly stance and deficit reduction goals are crucial for the bond market. While TLT may have bottomed, a sustained uptrend requires weaker economic data, which could emerge next year.
Another Round In The TLT Vs. PGX Pair Trade
The recent Fed Funds Rate cuts have triggered a buying frenzy in corporate fixed-income securities, leading to mispriced credit spreads across various credit ratings. Despite the rate cuts, new IPOs show no significant change in credit spreads, indicating no fundamental improvement in corporate credit quality. I recommend a pair trade: long iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF and short Invesco Preferred ETF to exploit the mispriced credit spreads.
A bond bear thinks battered Treasurys could see a year-end bounce
Investors could see a “right-now” trading opportunity take shape in long-term Treasury bonds.
Treasury Bonds (TLT) At Crossroads: Breakout or Breakdown?
Treasury bonds and bond yields (interest rates) have been a major investor focus of late. This is especially true as the Federal Reserve navigates interest rates and the presidential election takes center stage.
The TLT Is Starting to Look Interesting At These Levels: Buy the Dip
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) is an exchange-traded fund that many investors use to gain exposure to the long end of the bond market.
TLT: A Strategic Play As Rate Cuts Loom In A Debt-Heavy Market
Interest rates may have less impact on inflation than is commonly believed; for economic insights, the focus should be on bank credit and lending data. Recession indicators include rising unemployment, softening manufacturing hours, and downward payroll revisions, despite strong GDP growth due to high government deficit spending. The outlook for the bond market in the short to medium term is positive due to a possible recession and what we deem to be restrictive interest rates.
Is Treasury Bonds (TLT) Bounce a Sea Change or Just Noise?
Are long-dated treasury bonds and interest rates the current political football? Sure seems that way considering all the Federal Reserve talk and comments by Trump on rates and Jerome Powell.
TLT: They Are Pushing This Too Far
The Fed's 50 bps cut was sugar-coated with positive rhetoric on the economy and the subsequent Jobs Report conveniently supported their point. The labour market data beneath the headlines is not as positive. TLT has unwound the entire "growth scare rally" even though the situation is worse than it was when it last traded below $94.
Long TLT, An Interest Rate Play
The peak of the interest rate cycle and declining rates make it an ideal time to invest in long-duration bonds like iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF. TLT offers high price sensitivity, return asymmetry, and portfolio diversification with low volatility and no credit risk, making it a safe haven investment. Historical and technical analysis support TLT's potential for price appreciation as rates fall, with current price levels presenting a value-buy opportunity.
TLT: Are We In A 'Soft Landing' Again?
TLT experienced a 6% pullback, approaching oversold levels, driven by stronger job data that priced in a "soft landing" scenario and created a 'Goldilocks' environment for equities. Investors should remain cautious as consumer credit continues to worsen, given that positive economic data can fluctuate, and historical recessions often follow exuberant stock markets. The FY2025 S&P 500 earnings consensus remains lofty, indicating 15% YoY growth and an acceleration from 11% YoY in FY2024, despite the current stage of economic slowdown.
Stock Market ETFs Trading Update: Watch Long Bonds (TLT)
I'd say “if the Economic Modern Family could speak..." However, they can, and they do. And what are they saying after a week of China flying, metals rallying, yields and dollar flattening, natural gas bottoming and oil prices dropping? Not too much….YET!
